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XAU/USD Technical Outlook – US PMI ahead

After spotting a symmetrical triangle breakdown on the four-hour chart on Wednesday, Gold price extended the downside and hit the pattern target measured at $1,781. As explained here, the metal did stage a solid comeback, helped by the oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) conditions.

XAUUSD needs to defend the previous resistance now support of the 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,714 for the upside to remain in place. The RSI is now turning lower but holds above the midline, keeping bulls hopeful. The last line of defense for buyers is seen at the 21 DMA of $1,707.

A breach of the latter will reopen the downside towards $1,700 and the multi-months trough of $,1681.

On the flip side, a sustained move above the previous day’s high of $1,720, will revive the recovery momentum. Gold bulls will then aim for the July 18 high of $1,824. The $1,830 round number will be put to test should the upswing gather steam.

XAUUSD Technical Outlook

Gold price has now found acceptance below the $1,700 round-figure mark and seems vulnerable to slide further. Some follow-through selling below the August 2021 low, around the $1,687-$1,686 region, would reaffirm the negative bias and drag the XAUUSD to the $1,677-$1,676 area. The latter represents the 2021 year low and is followed by the $1,670 horizontal support, below which the metal is likely to prolong its downward trajectory.

On the flip side, any meaningful recovery beyond the $1,700 mark is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $1,710-$1,712 supply zone. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $1,725-$1,726 region, which if cleared could trigger a bout of a short-covering. The gold price could then aim to surpass the $1,734-$1,735 horizontal resistance and test the $1,749-$1,752 strong barrier.

XAU/USD Technical Overview – Consolidation phase at $1700 level

The technical chart shows that gold remains in selling zone as price is sustaining near the level of $1700 and on short term time frame forming descending triangle formation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stayed below 30 for the 15th straight trading day on Wednesday. The range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. This, in turn, suggests that the near-term bearish trend might still be far from being over and that the risks remain skewed to the downside. Hence, any positive move beyond the $1,725-$1,726 immediate resistance could be seen as a selling opportunity. On the flip side, the $1,700 region, nearly last week's swing low, might continue to act as immediate support. A convincing break below would make the XAUUSD vulnerable and pave the way for a slide towards the September 2021 low, around the $1,787-$1,786 region. Gold price could then extend the downward trajectory and eventually drop to test the 2021 yearly low, near the $1,677-$1,676 area.

Resistance Level - $1725 followed by$1750

Support Level - $1700 followed by $1680


RSI – On daily chart trading  below 30

MA – Taking resistance of 50 days EMA on daily chart   

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast:

After the sharp fall in GBP/USD we can see bounce back from lower level and from last couple of trading session GBP/USD is trading with positive sentiment and we are expecting positive movement throughout the week.

The 15-min chart is consolidating around 1.1950 which could see a breakout to the upside and towards 1.1980 in the day ahead in order to take out the price within the 1.2000 rally. This will bring the price towards a test the 50 days EMA placed at 1.2100 for the coming days.

The RSI and the Momentum indicator consolidate near oversold readings as the pair develops below firmly bearish moving averages. A potential bullish target and resistance level is 1.2000, but the pair would need to establish itself above 1.2055, a relevant high, to actually have room for a relevant upward extension.

Week ahead: UK inflation in focus

It’s a data-busy week for pound traders, as the UK Employment data will roll out on Tuesday, followed by the critical inflation release on Wednesday. Monday is a quiet day, with no top-tier macro data from both sides of the Atlantic. However, the BOE policymaker Michael Saunders is expected to speak at the Resolution Foundation in London.

The UK inflation data will hold the key for the BOE’s next rate hike plan. The UK CPI arrived at 9.1% YoY in May, a new 40-year high. Meanwhile, the UK political news and the Fed sentiment will continue to influence the pair’s price direction.

Thursday is the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, which, if creates market volatility, the pound could be impacted by the EUR/GBP cross-driven price swings. The US weekly Jobless Claims will be reported later on Thursday.

The UK Retail Sales, S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing and Services PMI will drop in on Friday, followed by the US S&P Global/CIPS Business PMIs. It will be a quiet week in terms of the speeches from the Fed officials as the US central bank enters a ‘blackout period’ ahead of the July 26-27 policy meeting.


Bitcoin Climbs 10% As Investors Gain Confidence

Bitcoin was trading at $22,909.4 by 20:14 (00:14 GMT) on the Index on Tuesday, up 10.22% on the day. It was the largest one-day percentage gain since February 28.

The move upwards pushed Bitcoin's market cap up to $427.2B, or 41.33% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. At its highest, Bitcoin's market cap was $1,275.5B.

Bitcoin had traded in a range of $22,266.1 to $22,909.4 in the previous twenty-four hours.

Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has seen a rise in value, as it gained 12.09%. The volume of Bitcoin traded in the twenty-four hours to time of writing was $40.4B or 41.36% of the total volume of all cryptocurrencies. It has traded in a range of $18,942.2012 to $22,909.4102 in the past 7 days.

At its current price, Bitcoin is still down 66.79% from its all-time high of $68,990.63 set on November 10, 2021.

Source :

XAUUSD – Technical outlook 19 July 2022

The daily chart for XAUUSD shows that $1700 is reacting as a strong support zone and buyers are accumulating. It also shows that attempts to regain the downside limited. Technical indicators stay within oversold levels, lacking directional strength while moving averages maintain their firmly bearish slopes far above the current level.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, RSI is trading near the level of 40 and making higher highs and higher lows. The pair briefly traded near the  30 days EMA, now back below it, while the longer moving averages keep heading south far above the shorter one.

Support levels: $1697 followed by $1685

Resistance levels: $1720 followed by $1732


RSI – On hourly chart marking near the level of 50

MA – On 4 hourly chart resist by 50D EMA

Gold Price technical outlook

Gold Price extends bounce off an upward sloping support line from March 2021. That said, the corrective pullback from the yearly low also takes clues from the oversold RSI (14) to direct XAUUSD buyers towards a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early 2021, surrounding $1,721-22.

It’s worth noting, however, that the 78.6/% Fibonacci retracement of March 2021-22 upside, near $1,760, could test the metal’s upside past $1,722, a break of which could quickly propel Gold Price to May’s low near $1,787.

On the contrary, the aforementioned support line from March 2021 joins oversold RSI (14) to restrict short-term XAUUSD declines around $1,709. Also acting as a downside filter is the $1,700 threshold.

In a case where Gold Price remains weak past $1,700, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards early 2021 bottom of $1,676 can’t be ruled out.

Weekly FX economic events (18-22 JULY)

This week may be full of volatility for the currency market. Better watch out for these central bank announcements, CPI data, and flash PMIs. If you are thinking of taking trade on any economic event then you need to read this blog.

Major Economic Events:

U.K. CPI (July 20, 6:00 am GMT) – First up we’ve got another glimpse into U.K. inflation, which has been rising enough to keep their policymakers on edge. Another uptick in price pressures is expected for June, with the headline figure projected to advance from 9.1% to 9.3%. A stronger than expected increase would once again feed into fears of a downturn in consumer spending and ultimately a recession. This could also up the pressure on the BOE to increase borrowing costs in their next meeting.

Canada’s inflation data (July 20, 12:30 pm GMT) – With the BOC recently surprising the markets with a huge interest rate hike last week, traders are keen to find out whether or not the latest round of inflation measures could spur another aggressive tightening move.

Headline CPI likely climbed from 7.7% to 8.3% year-over-year in June while the core reading probably dipped from 6.1% to 5.9%.

BOJ monetary policy statement (July 21) – It will be the BOJ’s turn to announce their policy decision but, unlike most of its peers, the Japanese central bank will likely stand pat. BOJ officials don’t seem to be alarmed by the surge in price pressures just yet, even welcoming the sharp drop in the yen’s value as it also spurs inflation.

ECB monetary policy statement (July 21, 12:15 pm GMT) – The main event for the week will likely be the ECB decision, as the central bank is widely expected to announce its first rate hike in more than a decade. It might not be such a huge deal like the Fed’s though, since the increase is only expected to come in at a measly 0.25%. What euro traders are more keen to find out is whether this tightening move is the first of many or just a one-off thing. Many expect the ECB to outline a roadmap for its rate hikes for the rest of the year, with some even banking on a larger 0.50% hike sometime in September.

Flash PMI readings (July 22) – It’s the third week of the month, so we’ve got the flash PMI reports lined up! The top eurozone economies will get the ball rolling, with France likely printing another set of declines in its manufacturing (51.4 to 51.1) and services (53.9 to 53.1) PMIs. Germany might also report a slower pace of growth in the manufacturing (52.0 to 50.9) and services (52.4 to 51.4) industry. In the U.K., the flash manufacturing PMI likely improved from 52.8 to 53.5 to signal a faster pace of expansion while the flash services PMI probably dipped from 54.3 to 53.6.

Source :

XAU/USD update – Trading near the level of $1700

Gold Price (XAUUSD) stays defensive at around $1,700, consolidating recent losses near the lowest levels in 11 months as risk-aversion fades ahead of the key US data. Also contributing to the corrective pullback could be the reduction in the hawkish Fed bets and easing the inversion gap of the key US Treasury yield curves, namely between 2-year and 10-year bonds. It’s worth noting, however, that the firmer US Producer Price Index (PPI) and downbeat economics from China keep gold sellers hopeful as they await US Retail Sales for June and preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for July.

When looking at the price movement of XAU/USD, we can see that the price movement is declining within an Elliot Wave style trend, forming lower lows and lower highs The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has tumbled into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 on daily chart. On 4 hourly chart Gold is continuously taking resistance of 50 days EMA. The downside sustaining  below $1700 proof that the high demand is temporary. Conservative traders should wait for the breakout of the important psychological level of $1700.

Resistance level -  $1720 followed by $1735

Support Level -  $1700 followed by $1685


RSI - On daily chart trading in oversold zone.

MA - On 4 hourly chart trading below 50 Days EMA

What is Risk?

What is Risk?

All investments involve some degree of risk. In finance, risk refers to the degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss inherent in an investment decision.  In general, as investment risks rise, investors seek higher returns to compensate themselves for taking such risks.

Every saving and investment product has different risks and returns.  Differences include: how readily investors can get their money when they need it, how fast their money will grow, and how safe their money will be. In this section, we are going to talk about a number of risks investors face.  They include:

Business Risk

With a stock, you are purchasing a piece of ownership in a company.  With a bond, you are loaning money to a company.  Returns from both of these investments require that that the company stays in business. If a company goes bankrupt and its assets are liquidated, common stockholders are the last in line to share in the proceeds.  If there are assets, the company’s bondholders will be paid first, then holders of preferred stock.  If you are a common stockholder, you get whatever is left, which may be nothing.

If you are purchasing an annuity make sure you consider the financial strength of the insurance company issuing the annuity.  You want to be sure that the company will still be around, and financially sound, during your payout phase.

Volatility Risk

Even when companies aren’t in danger of failing, their stock price may fluctuate up or down.  Large company stocks as a group, for example, have lost money on average about one out of every three years.  Market fluctuations can be unnerving to some investors.  A stock’s price can be affected by factors inside the company, such as a faulty product, or by events the company has no control over, such as political or market events.

Inflation Risk

Inflation is a general upward movement of prices.  Inflation reduces purchasing power, which is a risk for investors receiving a fixed rate of interest.  The principal concern for individuals investing in cash equivalents is that inflation will erode returns.

Interest Rate Risk

Interest rate changes can affect a bond’s value.  If bonds are held to maturity the investor will receive the face value, plus interest.  If sold before maturity, the bond may be worth more or less than the face value.  Rising interest rates will make newly issued bonds more appealing to investors because the newer bonds will have a higher rate of interest than older ones.  To sell an older bond with a lower interest rate, you might have to sell it at a discount.

Liquidity Risk

This refers to the risk that investors won’t find a market for their securities, potentially preventing them from buying or selling when they want. This can be the case with the more complicated investment products.  It may also be the case with products that charge a penalty for early withdrawal or liquidation such as a certificate of deposit (CD).

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