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5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 2, Jan

Gold price is auctioning in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a four-hour scale. The horizontal resistance of the aforementioned chart pattern is placed from December 13 high at $1,824.55 while the upward-sloping trendline is plotted from December 16 low at $1,774.36.

Advancing 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,814.77 and $1,807.43 respectively add to the upside filters.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 from the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates more upside ahead.
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 29,Dec

On a two-hour scale, the Gold price is trading in a Rising Channel chart pattern that signals volatility contraction. The upper portion of the aforementioned chart pattern is placed from November 15 high at $1,786.55 while the lower portion is plotted from November 28 low at $1,739.82.

The precious metal has picked strength after dropping to near the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,802.20. Also, the 200-EMA at $1,793.35 is aiming higher, which indicates that the upside bias is still solid.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which signals that Gold price is awaiting a fresh trigger for a decisive move.
Comex, Economic Calendar Tab, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 28, Dec

Gold price marked another defeat from the $1,825 horizontal resistance, despite refreshing a six-month high while ticking up to $1,833. However, firmer prints of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), placed at 14, joined the bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator, to keep XAU/USD bulls hopeful of another battle with the $1,825 hurdle.

During the Gold’s successful trading beyond $1,825, June’s top near $1,880 and late March swing low around $1,890 can test the XAU/USD buyers before offering them the $1,900 threshold.

Alternatively, a one-week-old ascending support line, close to $1,803, precedes the $1,800 round figure to restrict the short-term Gold downside.

Also acting as the key challenges for the Gold sellers is an upward-sloping support line from early December, close to $1,780, as well as the 200-SMA support near $1,778.

Overall, firmer oscillators join the higher-low formation of the Gold price to keep buyers on the table.
Comex, Economic Calendar Tab, Education, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News
5 months ago by

Weekly FX Recap 19,Dec – 23, Dec

News & Economic Updates:

Despite the central bank’s efforts to increase lending and loosen limits on property loans, China’s credit grew at a little slower pace than predicted in November at 2T yuan ($287 billion) vs. a forecast of 2.1T yuan.

U.S. inflation data came in below expectations at 7.1% y/y vs. 7.3% forecast

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the target interest rate range by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected on Wednesday.

China’s COVID and property sector weakness caused disappointing business and consumer activities data (industrial output, fixed asset investment, retail sales) in November

China sees full-blown outbreaks of COVID cases in major cities like Beijing, just a few weeks after easing up on zero-COVID policies. According to public health officials, China is facing a COVID surge that could lead to around 800M people being infected in the next few months

On Thursday, four central banks from Europe raised interest rates:

  • The European Central bank raised their key interest rate 50 bps to 2.00%
  • The Bank of England bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 3.50%
  • The Swiss National Bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 1.00%
  • Norway’s central bank raised their benchmark rate 25 bps to 2.75%

Global flash business survey data for December was released on Friday, with most surveys showing contractionary conditions.

  • U.S. Budget Deficit in November: -$249B vs. -$248B forecast
  • U.S. CPI for November: +7.1% y/y vs. +7.3% y/y forecast; Core CPI +6.0% y/y vs. +6.1% y/y forecast
  • U.S. Import Prices in November: -0.6% m/m vs. -0.4% m/m previous (-0.2% m/m forecast)
  • he FOMC raised rates by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected; Fed dot plot now sees “terminal rate” at 5.1% in 2023, no rate cut until 2024; Powell said that they have “some ways to go” on rates and it will take “substantially more evidence” to convince the Fed that inflation is on a sustained downward path
  • U.S. Retail Sales for November: -0.6% m/m vs. 1.3% m/m in October
  • U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fell by 20K to 211K vs. the previous week
  • NY Manufacturing Index dropped to -11.2 in November vs. 4.5 previous
  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI in December: 46.2 vs. 47.7 previous
  • The U.K. economy expanded by +0.5% m/m vs. a +0.4% m/m forecast in October
  • U.K. Oct manufacturing production advanced 0.7% m/m after previous flat reading; industrial production was flat in Oct. vs. a projected 0.1% m/m dip
  • U.K. jobless rate edges up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October
  • U.K.’s real wages down by 2.7% (3m/3m) in October despite 6.1% wage increase
  • On Tuesday, the Bank of England issued a warning regarding “considerable pressure” on consumers and companies as a result of rising inflation and borrowing prices.
  • Germany Final CPI read for November: +10.0% y/y and -0.5% m/m
  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to -23.3 in December vs. -36.7 in November
  • Euro area Industrial Production in October: -2.0% m/m; down by -1.9% m/m in the EU
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for December: 47.8 vs. 47.1 in November
  • Euro zone final CPI for November was revised higher to 10.1% y/y vs. 10.0% y/y prelim.
  • Euro zone Trade Balance for October was a deficit of -€26.5B vs. -€36.4B previous
  • The Swiss government expects an economic slowdown in 2023 to a below-average rate of 1.0%, but no recession.
  • Swiss producer prices index dropped by 0.5% m/m in Nov. to 109.2
  • Swiss central bank hikes interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.00% to counter a “further spread of inflation”
  • Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said on Monday that he’d rather raise rates too much than too little
  • Canada Manufacturing Sales in October: +2.8% m/m to $72.6B
  • Canada Housing Starts in November dipped to 264,159 from 264,581 units in October (255K forecast) – CMHC
  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for October: +6.8% m/m vs. +16.6% m/m previous
  • According to data released on Wednesday by Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand’s current account deficit for the third quarter of 2022 was NZ$5.9B
  • REINZ: New Zealand house prices fall -12.3% m/m  in November as interest rates bite
  • New Zealand GDP was up by +2.0% q/q in Q3 (vs. +0.9% q/q expected, +1.9% uptick in Q2) as borders fully reopened
  • Australia’s consumer inflation expectations moved lower from 6.0% to 5.2% in December – Melbourne Institute
  • Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 3.4% in November as 64,000 new jobs added
  • Australian flash manufacturing PMI down from 51.3 to 50.4 in Dec.
  • Australian flash services PMI fell from 47.6 to 46.9 in Dec.
  • Japanese Nov preliminary machine tool orders fell 7.8% y/y, following previous 5.5% drop
  • Japan Producer Price Index for November: +9.3% y/y vs. 8.9% y/y forecast
  • Japan Large Businesses Manufacturing Survey Index for Oct. – Dec. 2022: -3.6 vs. 1.7 previous
  • Japanese Tankan manufacturing index down from 8 to 7 in Nov vs. consensus at 6; non-manufacturing index up from 14 to 19 in Nov

Source: forexfactory.com
Comex, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 22 Dec

Nothing seems to have changed from a technical perspective, as Gold price still yearns for acceptance above the horizontal trendline resistance at $1,825.

Daily closing above the latter will yield a big breakout, opening doors toward the $1,850 psychological level. Ahead of that the $1,830 round figure will challenge the bearish commitments.

The bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and a bull cross confirmation lend support to the bullish outlook in Gold price.

The bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,785 has pierced the horizontal 200DMA for the upside, awaiting confirmation on a daily closing basis.

Alternatively, a rejection at the $1,825 resistance could recall sellers toward the critical confluence support at $1,785.

On its way downwards, Gold price could battie the December 14 high of $1,814, below which a sharp drop to the $1,800 mark cannot be ruled out.
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 21, Dec

Gold price needs to recapture the previous high of $1,821 to challenge the multi-month top at $1,825. Acceptance above the latter will initiate a fresh upswing toward the $1,830 round figure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned but holds comfortably above the midline, suggesting that any pullback in Gold price remains a ‘good buying’ opportunity.

Further, the bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,782 is on the verge of cutting the horizontal 200DMA at $1,785 from below, awaiting confirmation of another Bull Cross. The upward-sloping 50DMA pierced through 100DMA for the upside last week, which could be partly attributed to the renewed upside in the Gold price.

However, if Gold bulls fail to take out the $1,825 resistance, then a reversal toward the 200DMA support. Ahead of that the December 14 high of $1,814 could be tested. Also, the $1,800 threshold will offer strong support to Gold buyers should the retracement gather traction.
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
6 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 19, Dec

Gold price is seeing a fresh ray of light, as it closed the previous week above the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,786. That said, buyers could extend their control amid a bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is inching higher above the midline, currently standing at 57.98.

Meanwhile, the upward-sloping 50DMA has pierced the flattish 100DMA from below but traders await the confirmation of a Bull Cross on a daily closing basis. The immediate upside hurdle is placed at the $1,800 level, above which the December 15 high at $1,809 will be put to test once again. Acceptance above the latter could trigger a fresh upswing toward the multi-month high of $1,824.

On the flip side, the 200DMA resistance-turned-support could restrict any pullbacks. A daily closing below the 200DMA could challenge bullish commitments at the ascending 21DMA at $1,775. A decisive close below the 21DMA support will negate the ongoing upside momentum.
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
6 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 16, Dec

Gold price has found buyers once again near the mildly bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,772, prompting a tepid bounce toward the bearish 200DMA at $1,787. A sustained break above the latter is needed to extend the recovery momentum toward the $1,800 level. The next upside target is envisioned at the previous day’s high of $1,809.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching slightly higher while above the midline, suggesting that there is more room for recovery. Adding credence to the bullish potential, the upward-sloping 50DMA is set to cut the flattish 100DMA from below, which if materialized on a daily closing baiss will confirm a Bull Cross.

On the flip side, daily closing below the 21DMA support is critical to negate the bullish thesis. A sharp drop toward the previous week’s low at $1,766 will be on cards, if Gold bears flex their muscles below the 21DMA. Further south, the November-end lows near $1,740 could be on Gold sellers’ radars.
Comex, Investing Strategies, Position Size Calculator, Technical Analysis
6 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 15 Dec

Gold price pares intraday losses while bouncing off the 200-Hourly Moving Average (HMA), currently around $1,790. The recovery moves also take clues from the oversold RSI conditions to tease the buyers.

However, bearish MACD signals and multiple hurdles towards the north challenge the XAU/USD bulls. Among them, a two-week-old horizontal resistance area near $1,805 gains the attention of intraday buyers.

Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from Tuesday, near $1,810, could act as an additional upside filter to challenge the Gold buyers. On the flip side, an ascending trend line from November 30 adds strength to the $1,790 support, by joining the 200-HMA.

In a case where the Gold price remains bearish past $1,790, the resulting downturn could aim for the weekly low near $1,777 and then to the monthly trough surrounding $1,765.

Overall, the Gold price remains bullish unless breaking $1,790 support confluence.
Comex, Investing Strategies, Market, News, Technical Analysis
6 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook- 14, Dec

Technical readings in the XAU/USD daily chart favor another leg north. Gold has broken above its former multi-month high of $1,810.08, an immediate support level, while it also extended its rally above a mildly bearish 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA). The 20 SMA remains far below the current level, recovering its bullish slope, while technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD lost momentum, but bulls retain control. The pair is well above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction above the longer ones. Technical indicators remain within positive levels but turned lower, reflecting the ongoing slide rather than anticipated another leg lower.

Support levels: 1,810.00 1,798.70 1,786.15

Resistance levels: 1,824.55 1,833.10 1,846.20

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