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XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 24, Feb

Gold price remains vulnerable after breaching the key January 5 low at $1,825 support.

Gold bears keep their eyes on the seven-week low of $1,819 before testing the falling trendline support at $1,801.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading well below the midline, suggesting the downside potential remians intact, thus far. for now.

A bear cross is in the making, as the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) is on the verge of  cutting the 50 DMA from above. Confirmation of the bearish crossover could add credence to the downside in the Gold price.

On the flip side, any recovery will need acceptance above the previous day’s high of $1,834 to gain additional traction.

The next stop for Gold bulls is seen at the weekly high of $1,848, above which the $1,850 psychological level could offer stiff resistance.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 14, Feb

From a technical perspective, a sustained break and acceptance below the 50-day SMA, currently around the $1,856 region, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The gold price could then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $1,830 area en route to the $1,818-$1,817 zone and the $1,800 round figure.

On the flip side, any subsequent move up is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $1,875 region. This is followed by the $1,900 round-figure mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, above which a bout of a short-covering could lift the Gold price to the $1,925-$1,930 congestion zone.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 1, Feb

Spot gold plunged on US Dollar demand, with XAU/USD bottoming at $1,900.70 a troy ounce on Tuesday.  Risk aversion dominated the first half of the day, but American traders experienced new hopes and turned their back on the Greenback, pushing the bright metal into positive ground.

The catalyst for the US Dollar decline was a minor report that US Federal Reserve officials have been paying close attention to. The United States Employment Cost Index rose in the last quarter of 2022 by 1%, below the 1.1% expected and easing from 1.2% in the previous quarter. Additional signs of easing inflationary pressures boosted high-yielding stocks ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, reviving hopes for a soon-to-come pivot. The American central bank is widely anticipated to hike rates by 25 bps, minimizing the odds of a severe recession.

At the same time, US Treasury yields retreated from their recent highs, with the 10-year note currently offering 3.53%, down 2 bps. Meanwhile, stocks managed to change course. European indexes trimmed their early losses and settled mixed around their opening levels, while US indexes trade in the green.


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XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 31, Jan

The near-term soft tone falls short of anticipating a steeper decline. In the daily chart, technical indicators ease but remain well above their midlines, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) barely correcting overbought conditions. At the same time, the bright metal develops well above a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which heads north far above the longer ones. Finally, the same chart shows that buyers are defending the downside in the $1,910 price zone.

The 4-hour chart offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair is meeting near-term sellers around a flat 20 SMA, although the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their firmly bullish slopes below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels, although lacking directional strength.

Support levels: 1,910.00 1,896.50 1,884.30

Resistance levels: 1,935.10 1,950.00 1,966.15


XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 27, Jan

Having witnessed a fakeout to the upside from a rising wedge formation on Tuesday, bears took charge and triggered a corrective decline in the Gold price on Friday.

In doing so, Gold price closed the day below the lower boundary of the wedge, then at $1,940, validating a rising wedge breakdown. The natural tendency of the rising wedge is usually to yield a downside break, which eventually materialized on the United States Gross Domestic Product release.

Gold sellers need to crack a strong support near $1,918 to challenge the weekly low at $1,911. Should the correction deepen in the Gold price, the $1,900 round level could be put at risk.

With, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, in the positive territory above the midline, Gold price still remains a good buying opportunity on pullbacks.

On the upside, powerful resistance near the $1,950 psychological barrier remains a tough nut to crack for Gold bulls. Ahead of that, Gold price needs to find acceptance back above the $1,940 round figure.

A firm break above the $1,950 hurdle will call for a test of the next resistance placed around April 20 2022 highs near $1,958.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 25, Jan

The Gold price is on track for a crash should the US dollar bust to life given the placement of the price in the market structure. The US Dollar has been testing the daily trendline resistance as follows:

If this were to break then the Gold price will likely be headed lower, but there is red news scheduled for Thursday so any moves prior to that might be limited and a distribution schematic and higher highs could be more likely in the lead up:

Bullish trendline for Gold price is vulnerable.

A break of Gold price structures is eyed for the days ahead so long as resistance holds. 

A sell-off and capitulation of the Gold price bulls could lead to a significant run towards $1,900. 

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 24, Jan

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair favors a bullish continuation, but the price is currently facing resistance around the $1,935 zone. The pair topped last week at $1,937.47. The metal needs to consolidate above $1,935.00 to open the door to an upward extension. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame remain within overbought readings. The RSI is moving south, about to slide below 70. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads firmly north, far below the current level but above the longer ones at around $1,869.40.

For the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is slightly biased to the downside. The rebound from $1,910 took Gold back above the 20-SMA in the mentioned chart ($1,920) avoiding a deterioration in the technical outlook. If it drops back below it, attention would turn to $1,912, the last strong defence before the critical $1,900.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 20 Jan

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair favors a bullish continuation. The pair topped in January at $1,928.93 a troy ounce, the level to surpass to confirm an upward extension.  Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame remain within overbought readings, posting modest advances and without signaling upward exhaustion. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average  (SMA) heads firmly north, far below the current level but above the longer ones at around $1,857.10.

For the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also skews to the upside. Technical indicators have extended their advances within positive levels with moderated bullish strength. Additionally, the pair is comfortably developing above a flat 20 SMA, although the longer ones maintain their upward slopes far below it.

Support levels: 1,906.40 1,896.50 1,884.60

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 19, Jan

The XAU/USD pair trades flat for the day, with no signs of giving up further ground. The daily chart shows that technical indicators corrected extreme overbought readings before turning flat well into positive territory without signaling more weakness ahead. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads north almost vertically, far below the current level while above the longer ones, reflecting buyers' strength.

The 4-hour chart suggests the pair could fall further in the near term. It was unable to sustain gains above a mildly bullish 20 SMA and is back below the indicator, although still far above a bullish 100 SMA, currently at around $1,858.15. Finally, technical indicators turned south and pierced their midlines, maintaining their firmly bearish slopes within neutral levels. A break below the daily low at $1,890.54 could see the current corrective decline extending towards the $1,850 region.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 18, Jan

The XAU/USD pair retains its bullish potential intact, despite the lack of follow-through from these last few days. The daily chart shows that technical indicators are barely correcting overbought conditions but without enough strength to suggest a continued slide. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads firmly north, well above the longer ones, which also gain upward traction.

Near-term buyers defend the downside at around $1,900, and the 4-hour chart shows absent selling interest. XAU/USD is repeatedly bouncing from a bullish 20 SMA, currently at around $1,908.90. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, keep advancing below the shorter one, reflecting buyers’ strength. Finally, the Momentum indicator eased towards its midline but remains above it, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lost its directional strength and hovers around 60, maintaining the risk skewed to the upside.

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