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Weekly FX Recap 5 Dec – 9 Dec

News & Economic Updates:

  • China services activity index shrunk from 48.4 in October to six-month low of 46.7 in November
  • J.P.Morgan Global PMI Output Index fell to 48.0 in November from 49.0 in October; Global Services Business Activity Index fell to 48.1 in November from 49.2 in October
  • EIA crude oil inventories fell by 5.2M barrels vs. projected reduction of 3.5M barrels
  • China’s exports (-8.7% y/y) and imports (-10.6% y/y) shrank at their steepest pace in at least 2.5 years
  • China announced on Wednesday that asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and people with mild symptoms can now quarantine at home
  • Ethereum devs announced on Thursday that the “Shanghai” hard fork’s projected release date will be in March 2023. This upgrade will add the EIP 4895 code, which will allow withdrawals of staked ether (ETH) from the Beacon Chain.
  • Shanghai to remove COVID test requirement for food and entertainment venues; “Hong Kong is expected to loosen up COVID restrictions on isolation and masking
  • More than 14,000 barrels of crude oil leaked into a creek in Kansas, prompting Canadian company TC Energy to shut down its Keystone pipeline in the U.S.


  • ISM Services Index in November: 56.5 from 54.4 in October
  • U.S. Factory Orders in October: 1.0% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in September
  • U.S. Trade Deficit: $78.2 billion in October vs. $78.1 billion in September
  • U.S. Consumer Credit in October came in below expectations at $27.1B but above the previous month, which was revised higher to $25.8B
  • Weekly Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 230K in the week ending December 3rd vs. 226K the previous week.
  • U.S. Producer Price Index for November: +0.3% m/m +0.3% m/m previous; core PPI at +0.4%
  • Preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index for December: 59.1 vs. 56.8, above expectations of 56.9
  • UK new car sales up more than 20% in November
  • U.K. BRC retail sales monitor rose from 1.2% to 4.1% y/y in Nov
  • U.K. Construction PMI for November: 50.4 vs. 53.2 in October
  • Halifax: U.K. house prices fall 2.3% from October to November, the fastest rate in 14 years
  • U.K. RICS survey showed most widespread drop in house prices since May 2020
  • ECB’s Lagarde says inflation hasn’t peaked, may surprise to the upside
  • Eurozone Services Business Activity Index was at 48.5 in November vs. 48.6 in October
  • France Services PMI for November: 49.3 from 51.7 in October
  • Germany Services PMI for November: 46.1 vs. 46.5 in October; prices remain elevated
  • The volume of retail trade in the euro area was down by -1.8% m/m in October 2022 and by -1.7% m/m in the European Union
  • Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -21.0 in Dec. vs. -27.1 forecast; the expectations index rose to -22.0 vs. -32.3 previous
  • Germany industrial production declined by 0.1% in Oct (vs. 1.1% in Sept) as high energy prices take toll
  • Swiss jobless rate rose from 1.9% to 2.0% as expected in November, below 2.1% forecast
  • Canada Ivey PMI: 51.4 in November vs. 50.1 in October; Employment Index ticks down to 54.3; Prices Index decreased from 69.8 to 63.5
  • The value of Canada’s merchandise exports increased by 1.5% in October, while the value of its imports rose by 0.6%. As a direct consequence of this, the merchandise trade surplus that Canada enjoyed with the rest of the world increased from $607M in September to $1.2B in October.
  • Bank of Canada raised the overnight interest rate by 50 bps to 4.25% on Wednesday; hinted that the they may be nearing the end of the tightening cycle
  • Canada Capacity Utilization Rate for Q3: 82.6% vs. 82.8% previous
  • Global Daily Trade Price Index rose +0.6% to $3.60 since the last auction
  • NZ manufacturing sales improve from -3.2% to 5.1% q/q in Q3 2022
  • NZ credit card spending up by 0.3% from October to November as consumers spend more on essentials
  • AU construction contraction improves from 43.3 to 48.2 in November
  • AU MI inflation gauge accelerates from 0.4% to a four-month high of 1.0% in November
  • RBA hiked interest rates by 25bp from 2.85% to 3.10% as expected
  • Australian Q3 current account balance showed 2.3B AUD deficit vs. projected 5.9B AUD surplus
  • AIG PMI: Australia’s services sector shrunk from 47.7 to 45.6 in November on weakening demand
  • Japanese Oct household spending down from 2.3% to 1.2% y/y vs. 0.9% forecast; Real wages fell -2.6% y/y
  • Japan’s Economy Watchers sentiment index down from 49.9 to 48.1 in Nov.
  • The recent weakness of the yen & rising oil prices caused Japan to record its first current account deficit in nine months in October, the Finance Ministry reported on Thursday. The shortfall was ¥64.1B ($470 million).
  • Japan GDP for Q3 2022 was revised higher to -0.2% q/q vs. -0.3% q/q previous

Forex Market Weekly Recap – 24 Oct – 28 Oct

News and Economic Events Update:

  • China’s exports grew by 5.7% y/y to $322.8B in September; it’s the slowest rate of growth since April. Imports inched up by 0.3% y/y vs. 1.0% y/y forecast
  • China GDP for Q3 was 3.9% y/y vs. 3.3% y/y forecast; the unemployment rate increased to 5.5% vs. 5.3% previous
  • CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam said on Monday that  he sees ether as a commodity — not a security.
  • Oil prices jumped on Wednesday on record high U.S. crude exports and strong refining demand; WTI crude broke back above $88/bbl while Brent crude jumped above $96/bbl
  • The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected rate hike of 50 bps vs. a 75 bps forecast
  • Russian President Putin said on Thursday that his nation has never discussed a nuclear strike, and that there was no necessity for Russia to attack Ukraine with nukes.
  • As expected, the European Central Bank raised the deposit rate to 2.00% vs. 1.25% previous
  • The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic projections for Asia to 4.0% for 2022 (vs. a 4.9% forecast back in April) on Friday.
  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles on Friday from the North’s eastern coastal Tongchon area
  • The U.S. Core PCE Price Index annualized read of 5.1% y/y came in slightly below expectations, taming inflation fears a bit during the Friday session.
  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 49.9 vs. 52.0 in September; Services Index at 46.6 vs. 49.3; input cost pressures have increased; employment conditions mostly unchanged
  • U.S. Home Prices growth in August: +13.1% y/y vs. 16.0% y/y in July according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
  • U.S. New home sales fell -10.9% y/y to 603K in September
  • U.S. GDP rebounded slightly in Q3 2022 with the advance read at +2.6% q/q vs. 2.3% q/q forecast
  • U.S. durable goods for September: +0.4% m/m vs. upwardly revised +0.2% m/m in August
  • U.S. weekly jobless claims: 217K vs. 214K previous
  • U.S. Core PCE Price Index came as expected at 0.5% in September, inline with the August read; the annualized read of 5.1% y/y was slightly below expectations
  • U.S. Personal income in September: +0.4% m/m vs. an upwardly revised August read of +0.4% m/m
  • U.S. UOM consumer sentiment for October: 59.9 vs. the preliminary read of 59.8, and above the September read of 58.6
  • On Monday, Rishi Sunak was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party, making him the next prime minister of Britain.
  • U.K. Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 45.8 vs. 48.4 previous; Services PMI at 47.5 vs. 50.0 previous; output and demand continue to weaken; political uncertainty added to inflationary pressures contributed to downbeat sentiment
  • U.K. bond prices rallied on Monday as traders bet that new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will put an end to weeks of upheaval plaguing the nation’s markets and restore credibility to economic policy making
  • U.K. CBI manufacturing output for October -4%, the same as September, but sees output to increase over the next three months; firms seeing a shortage of skilled labor is at its highest level since 1973 at 49%; New orders fell -8% q/q vs. +11% q/q in July
  • The unveiling of a highly anticipated strategy for stabilizing the nation’s public finances was pushed back by Britain’s new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday to Nov. 17, two and a half weeks later than originally anticipated.
  • Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 45.7 vs. 47.8 previous; Services PMI at 44.9 vs. 45.0 previous
  • Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 46.6 vs. 48.4 in September; Services PMI at 48.2 vs. 48.8 previous; inflationary pressure remain due to high energy prices and rising wages
  • Germany Ifo business climate index in October ticked lower to 84.3 vs. a revised 84.4 read in September
  • Euro area M3 money supply growth for September: +6.3% y/y vs. 6.1% y/y in August; private loans increased by 5.5% y/y vs. 5.6% y/y in August
  • German GfK consumer climate index improved from -42.8 to -41.9 in Oct
  • Spanish jobless rate ticked higher from 12.5% to 12.7% in Q3 vs. 12.4% forecast
  • The European Central Bank raised the deposit rate from 0.75% to 1.50% as expected; future policy path will be decided during the upcoming meetings
  • Germany posted unexpected Q3 growth — up by 0.3% q/q vs. -0.2% q/q expected
  • France CPI for October; 7.1% y/y vs. 6.4% y/y forecast
  • Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 92.27 in September to 90.93 in October
  • The Bank of Canada hike interest rates by 50 bps to 3.75% vs. an expectation of a 75 bps hike; the BOC sees growth slowing through the first half of 2023
  • Canada GDP for August: +0.1% m/m vs. 0.0% m/m forecast
  • RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said on Tuesday that despite the fact that inflation in New Zealand was higher than anticipated in the third quarter, the central bank remains “hopeful” that it has peaked.
  • ANZ’s survey shows a 6 point drop in business confidence in October to -43; inflation pressures remain high with expectations at 6.13%
  • RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr warned on Thursday that the central banks efforts to slow inflation will likely slow down employment conditions in the near-term
  • New Zealand consumer confidence for October: unchanged at 85.4 vs. previous
  • Australia manufacturing PMI slows from 53.5 to 52.8 in October; Services PMI contracts from 50.6 to 49.0 in October
  • RBA Assitant Governor Christopher said on Monday that further rates are likely, but the timing and size wil depend on data
  • Australia’s annual inflation races from 6.1% y/y to a 32-year high of 7.3% y/y in September; CPI jumped 1.8% m/m vs. 1.6% m/m forecast
  • RBA’s trimmed mean CPI jumped from 4.9% y/y to 6.1% y/y, much higher than RBA’s 2% – 3% target
  • Australian import prices up by 3.0% q/q in Q3 vs. a projected 0.8% q/q uptick
  • Australia producer price index read for September quarter rose 1.9% q/q (1.4% q/q previous) and 6.4% y/y
  • Japan flash manufacturing PMI for October: 50.7 from 50.8 in September; Services PMI was higher at 53.0 vs. 52.2 in September, likely due to increasing travel volumes
  • Bank of Japan was suspected to have intervened again on Monday after the yen jumped against the dollar to 145.50 during the Asian session. Japan officials continued to refuse to make comments on any possible intervention actions.
  • BOJ core CPI read was up from 1.9% y/y in August to 2.0% y/y in September

Forex Market Weekly Recap : 10, Oct – 14, Oct

News and Economic Update:

  • China Caixin services PMI fell to 49.3 in September from 55.0 in August.
  • Russia unleashed its most broad air assaults since the start of the Ukraine war on Monday, showering cruise missiles on cities during rush hour to avenge a blown-up bridge.
  • The IMF estimated that global GDP will drop to 2.7% next year, 0.2% lower than its July forecast, and that 2023 will feel like a recession for millions.
  • On Tuesday, G7 leaders began an emergency meeting to examine the latest round of missile attacks that Russian forces conducted against Ukraine.
  • Bank of England expanded its emergency purchase to include inflation-linked debt in an effort to stop a rapid sell-off in the 2.3 trillion pound market for British government bonds.
  • The Bank Of Korea has raised its key base interest rate 50 bps to 3.00% as expected
  • API reports surprise 7.05M build in oil stockpiles
  • EIA: U.S. crude supply up by 9.9 million barrels for the week ended Oct 7, the most since March 2021
  • The Central Bank of Chile hike its interest rate by 50 bps to 11.25% on Friday, but suggested that they may hold off on rate moves at their next meeting.
  • The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy once again by re-centering its policy band
  • According to Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans, as supply chain pressures ease, there are some indications that inflation is slowing down.
  • According to Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is clear that restrictive monetary policy is necessary to reduce inflation, but the direction and rate of rate increases will remain “data-dependent.”
  • The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index improved to 92.1 this month, marking the second consecutive month of gains.
  • Fed’s Mester says there’s been no progress on inflation, so interest rates need to move higher
  • U.S. Producer Price Index for September: +0.4% m/m vs. -0.1% m/m previous; core PPI was +0.4% m/m vs. +0.2% m/m previous
  • U.S. mortgage interest rates rise to an average of 6.81%, the highest level since 2006; mortgage loan appliction volume fell -2.0% w/w and down -69% y/y
  • U.S. monthly headline CPI up by 0.4% in Sept vs. 0.2 expected, core CPI also higher at 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimates; Annualized U.S. inflation slows to 8.2% –the lowest in seven months – but still higher than 8.1% estimates
  • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from the most recent meeting showed that the FOMC members are surprised that inflation has been persistent and pulling back at a slower-than-expected pace.
  • The Bank of England announced an expansion of its emergency bond-buying operation on Tuesday. widening its buying of index-linked gilts from Oct. 11-14.
  • U.K. claimant counts increased in September at 25.5k vs. 4.2k forecast and 6.3k in August; the jobless rate ticked down from 3.6% to 3.5%; average earnings index popped higher from 5.5% to 6.0% vs. 5.9% forecast
  • U.K. GDP in August: -0.3% m/m vs. +0.2% m/m previous; manufacturing production fell -1.6% m/m
  • UK trade deficit widened to 7.1B GBP in August from a downwardly revised 5.4B GBP in July
  • Eurozone industrial production increased by 1.5% m/m in August vs. -2.3% m/m drop in July
  • erman final CPI unchanged at 1.9% m/m or 10% on year-over-year basis
  • August saw the euro zone’s goods trade deficit with the rest of the world rise to about 51 billion euros ($49.7 billion), the largest deficit the group has experienced since Lithuania joined in January 2015 as its 19th member.
  • Germany Wholesale prices jumped in September by 19.9% y/y and 1.6% m/m (vs. 0.1% m/m previous)
  • Swiss Producer and Import Price Index rose by 0.2% m/m in September and +5.4% y/y; The rise was mostly a result of higher prices for steel, raw milk and dairy products, as well as vegetables and potatoes. Products made of aluminum and petroleum, on the other hand, became less expensive.
  • Canada manufacturing sales for August fell -2.0% m/m to $70.4B vs. -0.6% m/m previous
  • Canada Wholesale sales for August: +1.4% m/m to $81.3B vs. -0.6% m/m previous
  • BusinessNZ: New Zealand’s manufacturing sector loses steam, drops from 54.8 to 52.0 in September
  • New Zealand Food Price Index for September: +0.4% m/m vs. 1.1% m/m
  • Australia AiG September services index 48.0 vs 53.3 in Aug.
  • Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment retreated by 0.9% after earlier 3.9% gain
  • Australian NAB business confidence index slipped from 10 to 5 in Sept.
  • Australia Household Spending Index fell 0.5% m/m in September, Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced Tuesday.
  • The Household Spending Intentions Index fell 0.5% in September from a month earlier, Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced Tuesday.
  • Australia’s MI inflation expectations unchanged at 5.4%
  • Japan’s core machinery orders post -5.8% m/m decline, the biggest fall in 6 months. Core orders came in at +9.7% y/y vs. an expectation of +12.6% y/y
  • Japan Reuters Tankan index hits 5-month low of 5 in Oct
  • Japanese producer prices jumped from 9.4% to 9.7% y/y in Sept.

Week Ahead in FX: 19, Sep – 23, Sep

Major News & Economics Events:

FOMC interest rate hike (Sept 21, 11:30 pm IST) – Surprisingly higher and stickier inflation in August led some market players to price in a 100 basis point interest rate hike from the Fed last week.

BOJ’s policy announcement (Sept 22, Asian session) – Markets don’t expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to make monetary policy changes this week.

SNB’s monetary policy decision (Sept 22, 01:00 pm IST) – A report printed earlier this month showed Switzerland’s annualized inflation at 3.5% in August, still higher than Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) “less than 2% per year” target.

BOE’s interest rate hike (Sept 22, 04:30 pm IST) – Recall that the Bank of England’s (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) postponed its decision by a week to observe the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Other notable central bank events – Other non-decision central bank events that may cause ripples in the central bankers’ local currencies include RBNZ Gov. Orr’s climate change-themed speech today at 08:30 am IST, RBA’s meeting minutes on Sept 20, 07:00 am ISTECB President Lagarde’s speech on Sept 20, 10:30 pm IST, and FOMC Gov. Powell’s opening remarks on Friday at 10:30 pm IST


Forex Market Recap : 12 Sep – 16 Sep

News and Economic Update:

  • President Zelensky says Ukraine retook 6K sqm from Russian control this month
  • U.S. Consumer prices rose in August and the annual growth rate slowed less than expected
  • U.K. headline consumer inflation slowed in August to 9.9% y/y but still remains way hot; core CPI ticked higher to 6.3% y/y
  • ZEW economic sentiment in Europe weakened to -60.7 vs. -54.9 previous
  • Australia’s unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.5% and net jobs gain came in below expectations as 33.5K
  • EIA crude oil inventories rose by 2.4M barrels
  • The German government took temporary control of two subsidiaries of the Russian energy giant Rosneft on Friday
  • FedEx Corp. sees business conditions deteriorating, and possibly will get worse, fueling global recession bets further ahead of the weekend.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to up attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, and pledging to continue military operation despite recent setbacks.
  • In August, the U.S. consumer price index rose by 0.1% m/m . The inflation gauge increased 0.6% when food and energy were excluded, which is higher than anticipated.
  • U.S. budget deficit widens to $220B in August, up by 29% from the same month last year
  • Homebuyers’ demand for U.S. mortgages declined 29% since last year as interest rates rise above 6%.
  • U.S. industrial production contracts by 0.2% (vs. 0.2% uptick expected) on lower utilities output
  • UK July GDP up by 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected, -0.6% in June
  • UK’s industrial production dips by 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected, -0.9% in June
  • UK manufacturing production improves by 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected, -1.6% previous
  • GDP grew in July by +0.2% q/q but the outlook remains one of recession – NIESR
  • The seasonally adjusted Italian industrial production index rose 0.4% m/m in July 2022. The recent three months’ average dropped 1.6% from the prior three.
  • According to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, the European Central Bank would have to keep raising interest rates if the current trend in consumer prices continues.
  • ZEW’s economic sentiment index for Germany declined to -61.9 from -55.3 in August. Reuters economists predicted -60.0 for September.
  • Swiss producer prices dip by another 0.1% vs. estimated 0.1% uptick
  • Canadian manufacturing sales declined 0.9% to $71.6B in July, mainly driven by the primary metal, petroleum and coal, and furniture and associated products industries.
  • Canada Housing Starts for August: -3% m/m to 267,443 units
  • NZ current account deficit narrows from 6.5B NZD to 5.22B NZD in Q2 2022
  • Australian Westpac consumer sentiment index rebounded by 3.9% m/m vs. -3% m/m previous
  • AU new home sales down by another 1.6% in August after 13.1% slide in July
  • Australia’s MI inflation expectations slowed from 5.9% to 5.4%
  • Australia added 33.5K jobs in August vs. estimated 35.5K gain
  • Japan’s core machinery orders surprisingly gain by 5.3% vs. 0.6% decline expected in July


Week ahead in FX (12, Sep – 16, Sep)

Major News and Economic Events:

U.S. inflation reports (Sept. 13, 12:30 pm GMT) – Dollar traders must be pretty eager to set their sights on Uncle Sam’s latest CPI readings since these could seal the deal for another 0.75% Fed rate hike.

Analysts are expecting to see a slowdown in headline inflation, though, as the August figure likely fell 0.1% after staying flat in July. This would mark its first negative reading since May 2020, which might suggest that U.S. inflation has peaked.

U.K. CPI (Sept. 14, 9:30 pm GMT) – The U.K. economy will also be releasing its inflation figures for August this week, and many are hoping that price pressures steadied at 10.1% year-over-year.

Another uptick in CPI would up the pressure on the BOE to accelerate their interest rate hikes in order to keep stagflation from worsening. The core CPI likely ticked higher from 6.2% to 6.3% for the month.

New Zealand Q2 GDP (Sept. 14, 10:45 pm GMT) – After reporting a 0.2% contraction for the first three months of this year, New Zealand’s economy is expected to rebound with a 1.0% GDP figure for Q2.

Retail sales reports – We’ll get a round of consumer spending data towards the end of the week, with the U.S., China and the U.K. printing their retail sales figures for August.


Forex Market Recap – 29, Aug. – 2, Sep.

News & Economic Updates:

  • The EIA reported on Wednesday that U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.3M bbl in the previous week, below analysts forecast of -400K bbl
  • ECB’s Villeroy de Galhau said that a “significant” rate hike is needed in September and a return to neutral (around 1% – 2%) by the end of the year.
  • Fed’s Mester sees benchmark rate above 4% and no cuts at least through 2023
  • On Wednesday, China’s Shenzhen enters new four-day lockdown over COVID-19 outbreak
  • China August Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (exp 49.2) & Non-manufacturing 52.6 (exp 52.2)
  • China Markit Manufacturing PMI falls into contractionary conditions: 49.5 in August vs. 50.2 forecast
  • On Friday, the U.S. called Iran’s latest response to the nuclear negotiations a non-encouraging and a step backwards
  • U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls came in just above expectations, unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.7% in August as more return to the workforce
  • J.P.Morgan Global manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in August (a 26-month low) vs. 51.1 in July; Price growth slowed while employment remained stable.
  • S&P Home Prices Index rose by 18% y/y in June vs. 19.9% in May
  • U.S. consumer confidence index jumped to 103.2 in August vs. 95.3 July
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams pushed back on market expectations of a rate cut next year
  • Chicago PMI for August: 52.2 from 52.1 in July
  • ADP payrolls report showed that employment grew by 132K in August vs. +268K in July
  • U.S. jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 232K for the week ended Aug. 27 vs. 250K forecast and 237K previous
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan say number one priority is price stability
  • U.S. Challenger job cuts fell 21% m/m in August, but up 30% y/y
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI for August: 52.8 vs. 52.8 in July; New orders Index: +3.3 to 51.3; Prices Index: -7.5 to 52.5; Employment Index: +4.3 to 54.2
  • The U.S. added a net 315K (vs. 526K previous) jobs and unemployment rate ticks higher to 3.7% as more workers join labor force
  • U.S. Factory orders fell by -1.0% to $548B in July
  • The Bank of England said UK credit card debt grew by 13% m/m, the highest rate since 2005. Mortgage interest rates jump to the highest level since 2015
  • U.K. Mortgage Approvals in July increased to 63.7K vs. 63.1K in June, both below the pre-pandemic average of 66.8K
  • U.K. Manufacturing PMI for August: 47.3 vs. 52.1 in July, new orders and business indexes contracting sharply
  • U.K. house prices rose by +0.8% in August vs. +0.2% in July – Nationwide
  • Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said that the ECB needs a ‘resolute’ hike of at least 50 bps
  • ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said that that it’s important to continue a consistent and orderly normalization of monetary policy
  • The European Union is ahead of schedule as it nears its goal to fill up to 80% of its gas storage reserves by November.
  • Euro Area Flash CPI: +9.1% y/y in August vs. +8.9% previous
  • Swiss KOF economic barometer dropped from 90.5 to 86.5 in August, below 88.3 consensus
  • Swiss PMI for August: 56.4 vs. 58.0 in July
  • Swiss retail sales in July: +2.6% y/y vs. a downwardly revised +0.7% y/y in June 2022
  • Canada’s current account surplus Q2 2022: $2.7B surplus, below $6.9B forecast
  • Canada GDP for Q2 2022: +3.3% y/y vs. 4.0% BOC expectations & 4.4% market forecasts
  • Canada building permits in July: -6.6% m/m vs. -0.6% m/m in June; lead by a fall of -8.6% in the residential sector
  • Canada’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.5 to 48.7 vs. 53.6 expected in August
  • Canadian labor productivity rose by 0.2% q/q in Q2 2022, the first rise in seven quarters
  • Bank of Japan Kuroda re-iterated that high prices are caused by commodities and will be transitory, needs to maintain easy monetary policy
  • Japanese unemployment rate unchanged at 2.6% as expected
  • Japanese consumer confidence improves from 30.2 to 32.5 in August
  • Japan Housing Starts: -5.4% y/y in July vs. -2.2% y/y previous


Daily Forex News

White House press secretary says gov’t expecting jobs slowdown

Major U.S. stock indices close lower for another day

Japanese unemployment rate unchanged at 2.6% as expected

Australian building approvals slumped by 17.2% vs. projected 3.1% decline

Swiss KOF economic barometer dropped from 90.5 to 86.5 vs. 88.3 consensus

Spanish flash CPI slowed from 10.8% to 10.4% y/y

Upcoming Forex Economic Calendar

Switzerland CPI m/m at 12:00 pm IST
UK Nationwide HPI m/m at 11:30 am IST
German Retail Sales m/m at 11:30 pm IST
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 07:30 pm IST
U.S. Natural Gas Storage at 08:00 pm IST


Daily Forex Update

NZ new housing consents jump back up from -2.2% to 5% in July

BRC: inflation in UK shops climbs to highest rate on record

Japan’s July industrial output rises 1.0% on month vs. 0.5% decline expected

Japan’s retail sales up by 2.4% vs. 1.5% annual gain in June

NZ ANZ business confidence improves from -56.7 to -47.8

China’s manufacturing PMI rises, but factory activity still in contraction

China’s services sector activity expands at slower pace in August

China’s Shenzhen enters new four-day lockdown over COVID-19 outbreak

Japanese consumer confidence improves from 30.2 to 32.5 in August

Oil prices climb 1% as U.S. fuel inventories fall

Russian stocks hit 3-month high as Gazprom surges on dividend plan; rouble dips

China coal shares soar as investors bet economics will trump emissions concerns

Upcoming Forex Economic Calendar

Eurozone’s flash CPI reports at 9:00 am GMT
FOMC member Mester to give a speech in Ohio at 12:00 pm GMT
U.S. ADP report at 12:15 pm GMT
Canada’s monthly GDP at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. Chicago PMI at 1:45 pm GMT
EIA crude oil inventories at 2:30 pm GMT


Week Ahead in FX (Aug. 30 – Sept. 2)

Major Economic Events:

Germany’s preliminary CPI (Aug. 30) lined up early in the week, setting the tone for the eurozone’s flash CPI readings (Aug. 31, 02:30 pm IST) due the next day.

Analysts are expecting to see a slowdown from 0.9% to 0.2% for Germany’s inflation reading in August while the region’s flash headline CPI could tick higher from 8.9% to 9.0%. The core version of the report probably climbed from 4.0% to 4.1% in August.

Next up is Switzerland’s CPI (Sept. 1, 12:00 pm IST) that’s slated to show an improvement from a flat reading to a 0.2% uptick for August.

U.S. non-farm payrolls (Sept. 2, 06:00 pm IST) – It’s NFP week! This means that dollar traders will be keeping close tabs on leading jobs indicators in the next few days and likely positioning ahead of the top-tier event.

Number crunchers estimate a 295K increase in hiring for August, slower than the earlier 528K increase.

The jobless rate likely held steady at 3.5% while average hourly earnings probably dipped from 0.5% to 0.4%.

The JOLTS job openings report (Aug. 30, 07:30 pm IST) due early in the week is expected to show slightly fewer positions for the previous month, dipping from 10.70M to 10.43M in July.

However, the ADP non-farm employment change (Aug. 31, 05:45 pm IST) is projected to show a faster pace of hiring at 310K versus the earlier 128K figure. The ISM manufacturing PMI (Sept. 1, 07:30 pm IST) might also have some clues for the official jobs report, as the reading is expected to dip from 52.8 to 52.1.

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