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Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook 0

Gold price grinds near a multi-day high after crossing an upward-sloping resistance line from early October 2022, now immediate support around $1,860. The upside momentum also takes clues from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator’s bullish signals and the firmer Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14.

It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI line is near the overbought territory and also portrays a lower-high formation since early November, which in turn suggests a limited upside room for the XAU/USD.

As a result, June’s high near $1,880 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the Gold’s March-September 2022 downturn, near $1,897, quickly followed by the $1,900 threshold, gain the market’s attention.

In a case where the Gold price remains firmer past $1,900, multiple hurdles surrounding $1,915, $1,935 and $1,965 could challenge the buyers before directing them to the $2,000 psychological magnet.

Alternatively, a downside break of the $1,860 resistance-turned-support could drag the XAU/USD to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,842. However, the 21-Day Moving Average (DMA) and August month’s high, respectively around $1,811 and $1,807, could restrict the Gold price downside afterward.

Overall, Gold seems to have a limited upside room even if the bullish bias remains intact.
Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Market, News, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 4, Jan

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that it holds on to modest daily gains despite shedding $20 from its intraday top. The risk remains skewed to the upside according to technical readings, as gold remains above all of its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its bullish slope above the longer ones. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned north within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) advances at around 62, reflecting the dominant upward trend.

The near-term picture suggests XAU/USD could keep declining but also that the bullish trend remains firmly in place. Despite the sharp pullback, the metal remains above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA  providing dynamic support at around $1,819.30. Technical indicators are retreating sharply from overbought readings but still holding within positive levels and far from their midlines. A break through the mentioned 20 SMA could lead to a steeper decline, but buyers will likely take their chances at around $1,800.
Comex, Economic Calendar Tab, Education, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News
3 months ago by

Weekly FX Recap 19,Dec – 23, Dec

News & Economic Updates:

Despite the central bank’s efforts to increase lending and loosen limits on property loans, China’s credit grew at a little slower pace than predicted in November at 2T yuan ($287 billion) vs. a forecast of 2.1T yuan.

U.S. inflation data came in below expectations at 7.1% y/y vs. 7.3% forecast

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the target interest rate range by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected on Wednesday.

China’s COVID and property sector weakness caused disappointing business and consumer activities data (industrial output, fixed asset investment, retail sales) in November

China sees full-blown outbreaks of COVID cases in major cities like Beijing, just a few weeks after easing up on zero-COVID policies. According to public health officials, China is facing a COVID surge that could lead to around 800M people being infected in the next few months

On Thursday, four central banks from Europe raised interest rates:

  • The European Central bank raised their key interest rate 50 bps to 2.00%
  • The Bank of England bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 3.50%
  • The Swiss National Bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 1.00%
  • Norway’s central bank raised their benchmark rate 25 bps to 2.75%

Global flash business survey data for December was released on Friday, with most surveys showing contractionary conditions.

  • U.S. Budget Deficit in November: -$249B vs. -$248B forecast
  • U.S. CPI for November: +7.1% y/y vs. +7.3% y/y forecast; Core CPI +6.0% y/y vs. +6.1% y/y forecast
  • U.S. Import Prices in November: -0.6% m/m vs. -0.4% m/m previous (-0.2% m/m forecast)
  • he FOMC raised rates by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected; Fed dot plot now sees “terminal rate” at 5.1% in 2023, no rate cut until 2024; Powell said that they have “some ways to go” on rates and it will take “substantially more evidence” to convince the Fed that inflation is on a sustained downward path
  • U.S. Retail Sales for November: -0.6% m/m vs. 1.3% m/m in October
  • U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fell by 20K to 211K vs. the previous week
  • NY Manufacturing Index dropped to -11.2 in November vs. 4.5 previous
  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI in December: 46.2 vs. 47.7 previous
  • The U.K. economy expanded by +0.5% m/m vs. a +0.4% m/m forecast in October
  • U.K. Oct manufacturing production advanced 0.7% m/m after previous flat reading; industrial production was flat in Oct. vs. a projected 0.1% m/m dip
  • U.K. jobless rate edges up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October
  • U.K.’s real wages down by 2.7% (3m/3m) in October despite 6.1% wage increase
  • On Tuesday, the Bank of England issued a warning regarding “considerable pressure” on consumers and companies as a result of rising inflation and borrowing prices.
  • Germany Final CPI read for November: +10.0% y/y and -0.5% m/m
  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to -23.3 in December vs. -36.7 in November
  • Euro area Industrial Production in October: -2.0% m/m; down by -1.9% m/m in the EU
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for December: 47.8 vs. 47.1 in November
  • Euro zone final CPI for November was revised higher to 10.1% y/y vs. 10.0% y/y prelim.
  • Euro zone Trade Balance for October was a deficit of -€26.5B vs. -€36.4B previous
  • The Swiss government expects an economic slowdown in 2023 to a below-average rate of 1.0%, but no recession.
  • Swiss producer prices index dropped by 0.5% m/m in Nov. to 109.2
  • Swiss central bank hikes interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.00% to counter a “further spread of inflation”
  • Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said on Monday that he’d rather raise rates too much than too little
  • Canada Manufacturing Sales in October: +2.8% m/m to $72.6B
  • Canada Housing Starts in November dipped to 264,159 from 264,581 units in October (255K forecast) – CMHC
  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for October: +6.8% m/m vs. +16.6% m/m previous
  • According to data released on Wednesday by Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand’s current account deficit for the third quarter of 2022 was NZ$5.9B
  • REINZ: New Zealand house prices fall -12.3% m/m  in November as interest rates bite
  • New Zealand GDP was up by +2.0% q/q in Q3 (vs. +0.9% q/q expected, +1.9% uptick in Q2) as borders fully reopened
  • Australia’s consumer inflation expectations moved lower from 6.0% to 5.2% in December – Melbourne Institute
  • Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 3.4% in November as 64,000 new jobs added
  • Australian flash manufacturing PMI down from 51.3 to 50.4 in Dec.
  • Australian flash services PMI fell from 47.6 to 46.9 in Dec.
  • Japanese Nov preliminary machine tool orders fell 7.8% y/y, following previous 5.5% drop
  • Japan Producer Price Index for November: +9.3% y/y vs. 8.9% y/y forecast
  • Japan Large Businesses Manufacturing Survey Index for Oct. – Dec. 2022: -3.6 vs. 1.7 previous
  • Japanese Tankan manufacturing index down from 8 to 7 in Nov vs. consensus at 6; non-manufacturing index up from 14 to 19 in Nov

Source: forexfactory.com
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 16, Dec

Gold price has found buyers once again near the mildly bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,772, prompting a tepid bounce toward the bearish 200DMA at $1,787. A sustained break above the latter is needed to extend the recovery momentum toward the $1,800 level. The next upside target is envisioned at the previous day’s high of $1,809.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching slightly higher while above the midline, suggesting that there is more room for recovery. Adding credence to the bullish potential, the upward-sloping 50DMA is set to cut the flattish 100DMA from below, which if materialized on a daily closing baiss will confirm a Bull Cross.

On the flip side, daily closing below the 21DMA support is critical to negate the bullish thesis. A sharp drop toward the previous week’s low at $1,766 will be on cards, if Gold bears flex their muscles below the 21DMA. Further south, the November-end lows near $1,740 could be on Gold sellers’ radars.
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Overview – 13, Dec

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that it retreated below the 200 SMA, which is now providing dynamic resistance at around 1,791.20. A more relevant one is the daily high of $1,797.10. The 20 SMA has turned flat below the current level but still stands well above the 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators ease within positive levels, reflecting the ongoing slide rather than suggesting more declines ahead.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The bright metal has extended its decline below a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while the longer ones remain far below the current level. The Momentum indicator, in the meantime, is now flat at around its 100 line, while the RSI heads firmly south at around 46, anticipating a potential slide.

Support levels: 1,775.15 1,762.70 1,749.10  

Resistance levels: 1,797.10 1,807.30 1,818.90
Comex, Education, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Psychology
4 months ago by

Week Ahead in FX (5, Dec – 9, Dec)

Major Economic Events:

RBA monetary policy decision (Dec. 6, 3:30 am GMT) – First up, we’ve got Australia’s central bank scheduled to announce their rate decision early in the week

Australia’s Q3 GDP (Dec. 7, 12:30 am GMT) – The action ain’t over for Aussie pairs even after the RBA decision, as the country’s third quarter GDP is up for release the next day.

BOC monetary policy statement (Dec. 7, 3:00 pm GMT) – Canada’s central bank is also expected to announce a 0.25% interest rate hike this week, slowing down from its earlier 0.50% rate increase.

U.S. leading inflation data – Uncle Sam has a couple of leading indicators on inflation to watch out for, namely the ISM services PMI due early in the week and the PPI report scheduled on Friday.

Chinese CPI and PPI (Dec. 9, 1:30 am GMT) – Weaker price pressures are eyed for China, as both the CPI and PPI might print subdued readings for November.

Source: forexfactory.com
Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Market Hours, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 1, Dec

The XAU/USD pair currently trades at around $1,780, positive changed for a sixth consecutive day. The daily chart shows that the Momentum indicator is pressuring its 100 level to the downside, reflecting the lack of upward strength. At the same time, the RSI indicator consolidates at around 59, maintaining the risk skewed to the upside. Furthermore, the 20 SMA heads north below the current level, providing dynamic support at around $1,737.40.

The near-term picture reflects the ongoing slide but falls short of supporting a downward extension. The pair is trading above the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily advance at $1,745.50, while a bullish 100 SMA converges with the mentioned Fibonacci level. The 20 SMA is flat, with the price seesawing around it, while technical indicators turned lower but remain within neutral levels. A clear break below the aforementioned static support level could open the door for a stepper decline towards the $1,725 price zone.

Support levels: 1,765.50 1,757.40 1,735.65  

Resistance levels: 1790, 1805, 1815
Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 30, Nov

Gold price is on the verge of yielding a symmetrical triangle breakout on the four-hour chart. The bright metal needs a  four-hour candle stick close above the falling trendline resistance at $1,759 to confirm the upside break. If Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell backs the dovish pivot, Gold bulls could see the much-needed boost.

A fresh upswing toward the $1,770 round figure cannot be ruled out. The next upside target is envisioned at the multi-month highs at $1,787. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading listlessly while above the midline, keeping bulls hopeful.  

On the flip side, strong support is seen around the $1,750 level, where the 21, 50 and 100-Simple Moving Averages (SMA) converge. A breach of the latter will expose the rising trendline support at $1,745. A sustained move below that support could validate a downside break from the symmetrical triangle, opening floors for deeper declines toward the $1,730 round figure.
Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Overview – 29, Nov

The XAU/USD daily chart shows another failure to hold above the $1,760 zone, a sign of difficulties for gold bulls. The positive for the yellow metal is that it remains well above the 20 and 100 SMAs. The Momentum indicator turned south, although it remains above the 100 level. RSI also is now pointing to the downside. The main trend remains bullish but the outlook favors some correction ahead while limited by $1,760. A decline under $1,720 would increase the bearish pressure.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is pointing to the downside. The critical level in the chart is seen around $1,735 that should keep losses controlled. A break lower would put deteriorated further the outlook for the yellow metal, exposing the recent low at $1,720$. Technical indicators are directionless.

Support levels: 1,735.50 1,720.75 1,703.00  

Resistance levels: 1,760.00 1,771.10 1,785.00
Education, Forex, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

EUR/USD Technical Overview – 28, Nov

EUR/USD is displaying a lackluster performance in the Tokyo session after resurfacing from the critical support of 1.0382. The Euro pair is oscillating above the round-level support of 1.0400. The major is awaiting a potential trigger for a fresh impetus as the market mood is extremely quiet amid the holiday in the United States on account of Thanksgiving Day.

EUR/USD is playing with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0389 on a daily scale. The corrective move in the asset after printing a high of 1.0482 on November 15 to near 1.0226 has been supported by the upward-sloping trendline placed from November low at 0.9730. Going forward, potential resistances are plotted from June 27 high at 1.0615, and May 30 high at 1.0787.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the upside momentum is active.

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