Start your investment and trading journey with a deep education on financial market.
The beginner's guide to Forex market
Home > Forex

Category: Forex
Forex, Gain and Loss calculator, Indices, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
2 months ago by

EURUSD Technical Outlook – 1, Aug

The EUR/USD gave up some of Friday's gains after being unable to rise above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It continues to approach an important uptrend line that stands around 1.0960/65, with a break lower increasing the likelihood of a slide to the July low at 1.0830. On the daily chart, signs are mixed, with Momentum with a downward trend hovering around 100, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving south. Risks look tilted to the downside.

On the 4-hour chart, risks are also tilted to the downside, with the price below the 20-SMA and under 1.1000. A test of the mentioned trendline seems likely if the price drops below 1.0980. A slide under 1.0960 should increase the bearish pressure, exposing last week's low at 1.0943; below that, the next target is the 1.0900 zone. On the upside, a recovery above 1.1040 would improve the outlook for the Euro. For the pair to change the short-term bias to bullish, it needs to break above 1.1105, surpassing a downtrend line and key SMAs.

Source: fxstreet.com
Economic Calendar Tab, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Uncategorized
10 months ago by

Weekly FX Recap 5 Dec – 9 Dec

News & Economic Updates:

  • China services activity index shrunk from 48.4 in October to six-month low of 46.7 in November
  • J.P.Morgan Global PMI Output Index fell to 48.0 in November from 49.0 in October; Global Services Business Activity Index fell to 48.1 in November from 49.2 in October
  • EIA crude oil inventories fell by 5.2M barrels vs. projected reduction of 3.5M barrels
  • China’s exports (-8.7% y/y) and imports (-10.6% y/y) shrank at their steepest pace in at least 2.5 years
  • China announced on Wednesday that asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and people with mild symptoms can now quarantine at home
  • Ethereum devs announced on Thursday that the “Shanghai” hard fork’s projected release date will be in March 2023. This upgrade will add the EIP 4895 code, which will allow withdrawals of staked ether (ETH) from the Beacon Chain.
  • Shanghai to remove COVID test requirement for food and entertainment venues; “Hong Kong is expected to loosen up COVID restrictions on isolation and masking
  • More than 14,000 barrels of crude oil leaked into a creek in Kansas, prompting Canadian company TC Energy to shut down its Keystone pipeline in the U.S.

FOREX MARKET WEEKLY RECAP

  • ISM Services Index in November: 56.5 from 54.4 in October
  • U.S. Factory Orders in October: 1.0% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in September
  • U.S. Trade Deficit: $78.2 billion in October vs. $78.1 billion in September
  • U.S. Consumer Credit in October came in below expectations at $27.1B but above the previous month, which was revised higher to $25.8B
  • Weekly Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 230K in the week ending December 3rd vs. 226K the previous week.
  • U.S. Producer Price Index for November: +0.3% m/m +0.3% m/m previous; core PPI at +0.4%
  • Preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index for December: 59.1 vs. 56.8, above expectations of 56.9
  • UK new car sales up more than 20% in November
  • U.K. BRC retail sales monitor rose from 1.2% to 4.1% y/y in Nov
  • U.K. Construction PMI for November: 50.4 vs. 53.2 in October
  • Halifax: U.K. house prices fall 2.3% from October to November, the fastest rate in 14 years
  • U.K. RICS survey showed most widespread drop in house prices since May 2020
  • ECB’s Lagarde says inflation hasn’t peaked, may surprise to the upside
  • Eurozone Services Business Activity Index was at 48.5 in November vs. 48.6 in October
  • France Services PMI for November: 49.3 from 51.7 in October
  • Germany Services PMI for November: 46.1 vs. 46.5 in October; prices remain elevated
  • The volume of retail trade in the euro area was down by -1.8% m/m in October 2022 and by -1.7% m/m in the European Union
  • Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -21.0 in Dec. vs. -27.1 forecast; the expectations index rose to -22.0 vs. -32.3 previous
  • Germany industrial production declined by 0.1% in Oct (vs. 1.1% in Sept) as high energy prices take toll
  • Swiss jobless rate rose from 1.9% to 2.0% as expected in November, below 2.1% forecast
  • Canada Ivey PMI: 51.4 in November vs. 50.1 in October; Employment Index ticks down to 54.3; Prices Index decreased from 69.8 to 63.5
  • The value of Canada’s merchandise exports increased by 1.5% in October, while the value of its imports rose by 0.6%. As a direct consequence of this, the merchandise trade surplus that Canada enjoyed with the rest of the world increased from $607M in September to $1.2B in October.
  • Bank of Canada raised the overnight interest rate by 50 bps to 4.25% on Wednesday; hinted that the they may be nearing the end of the tightening cycle
  • Canada Capacity Utilization Rate for Q3: 82.6% vs. 82.8% previous
  • Global Daily Trade Price Index rose +0.6% to $3.60 since the last auction
  • NZ manufacturing sales improve from -3.2% to 5.1% q/q in Q3 2022
  • NZ credit card spending up by 0.3% from October to November as consumers spend more on essentials
  • AU construction contraction improves from 43.3 to 48.2 in November
  • AU MI inflation gauge accelerates from 0.4% to a four-month high of 1.0% in November
  • RBA hiked interest rates by 25bp from 2.85% to 3.10% as expected
  • Australian Q3 current account balance showed 2.3B AUD deficit vs. projected 5.9B AUD surplus
  • AIG PMI: Australia’s services sector shrunk from 47.7 to 45.6 in November on weakening demand
  • Japanese Oct household spending down from 2.3% to 1.2% y/y vs. 0.9% forecast; Real wages fell -2.6% y/y
  • Japan’s Economy Watchers sentiment index down from 49.9 to 48.1 in Nov.
  • The recent weakness of the yen & rising oil prices caused Japan to record its first current account deficit in nine months in October, the Finance Ministry reported on Thursday. The shortfall was ¥64.1B ($470 million).
  • Japan GDP for Q3 2022 was revised higher to -0.2% q/q vs. -0.3% q/q previous
Comex, Education, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Psychology
10 months ago by

Week Ahead in FX (5, Dec – 9, Dec)

Major Economic Events:

RBA monetary policy decision (Dec. 6, 3:30 am GMT) – First up, we’ve got Australia’s central bank scheduled to announce their rate decision early in the week

Australia’s Q3 GDP (Dec. 7, 12:30 am GMT) – The action ain’t over for Aussie pairs even after the RBA decision, as the country’s third quarter GDP is up for release the next day.

BOC monetary policy statement (Dec. 7, 3:00 pm GMT) – Canada’s central bank is also expected to announce a 0.25% interest rate hike this week, slowing down from its earlier 0.50% rate increase.

U.S. leading inflation data – Uncle Sam has a couple of leading indicators on inflation to watch out for, namely the ISM services PMI due early in the week and the PPI report scheduled on Friday.

Chinese CPI and PPI (Dec. 9, 1:30 am GMT) – Weaker price pressures are eyed for China, as both the CPI and PPI might print subdued readings for November.

Source: forexfactory.com
Education, Forex, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
10 months ago by

EUR/USD Technical Overview – 28, Nov

EUR/USD is displaying a lackluster performance in the Tokyo session after resurfacing from the critical support of 1.0382. The Euro pair is oscillating above the round-level support of 1.0400. The major is awaiting a potential trigger for a fresh impetus as the market mood is extremely quiet amid the holiday in the United States on account of Thanksgiving Day.

EUR/USD is playing with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0389 on a daily scale. The corrective move in the asset after printing a high of 1.0482 on November 15 to near 1.0226 has been supported by the upward-sloping trendline placed from November low at 0.9730. Going forward, potential resistances are plotted from June 27 high at 1.0615, and May 30 high at 1.0787.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the upside momentum is active.
Education, Forex, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, Position Size Calculator, Technical Analysis
11 months ago by

GBP/USD Technical Outlook – 15, Nov

GBPUSD is likely to face stiff resistance at 1.1850 (static level). In case it manages to rise above that level and starts using it as support, it could target 1.1900 (former support, psychological level) and 1.2000 (psychological level).

On the downside, 1.1800 (psychological level, static level) aligns as initial support before 1.1750 (20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.1700 (psychological level, static level).

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart stays below 70, suggesting that GBPUSD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought
Education, Forex, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
11 months ago by

EUR/USD Technical Outlook – 3, Nov

The EUR/USD pair closed a third consecutive day below the 0.9900 level and near a fresh weekly low of 0.9821, which lifts the risk of a bearish extension in the upcoming sessions. Technically speaking, the pair is breaking below the 50% retracement of its latest daily advance between 0.9630 and 1.0093 at 0.9856, another bearish hint. The daily chart shows that the pair is currently battling a flat 20 SMA while a bearish 100 SMA heads firmly lower at around 1.0065. Finally, technical indicators resumed their declines, with the Momentum just above its 100 level and the RSI already below its midline.

The 4-hour chart favors a bearish extension, particularly if the pair breaks below the 0.9800 price zone. Technical indicators have gained bearish strength within negative levels, supporting further declines, while a firmly bearish 20 SMA continues to reject buyers.

Support levels: 0.9800 0.9760 0.9615

Resistance levels: 0.9865 0.9910 0.9970
Economic Calendar Tab, Forex, Market, News
11 months ago by

Forex Market Weekly Recap – 24 Oct – 28 Oct

News and Economic Events Update:

  • China’s exports grew by 5.7% y/y to $322.8B in September; it’s the slowest rate of growth since April. Imports inched up by 0.3% y/y vs. 1.0% y/y forecast
  • China GDP for Q3 was 3.9% y/y vs. 3.3% y/y forecast; the unemployment rate increased to 5.5% vs. 5.3% previous
  • CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam said on Monday that  he sees ether as a commodity — not a security.
  • Oil prices jumped on Wednesday on record high U.S. crude exports and strong refining demand; WTI crude broke back above $88/bbl while Brent crude jumped above $96/bbl
  • The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected rate hike of 50 bps vs. a 75 bps forecast
  • Russian President Putin said on Thursday that his nation has never discussed a nuclear strike, and that there was no necessity for Russia to attack Ukraine with nukes.
  • As expected, the European Central Bank raised the deposit rate to 2.00% vs. 1.25% previous
  • The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic projections for Asia to 4.0% for 2022 (vs. a 4.9% forecast back in April) on Friday.
  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles on Friday from the North’s eastern coastal Tongchon area
  • The U.S. Core PCE Price Index annualized read of 5.1% y/y came in slightly below expectations, taming inflation fears a bit during the Friday session.
  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 49.9 vs. 52.0 in September; Services Index at 46.6 vs. 49.3; input cost pressures have increased; employment conditions mostly unchanged
  • U.S. Home Prices growth in August: +13.1% y/y vs. 16.0% y/y in July according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
  • U.S. New home sales fell -10.9% y/y to 603K in September
  • U.S. GDP rebounded slightly in Q3 2022 with the advance read at +2.6% q/q vs. 2.3% q/q forecast
  • U.S. durable goods for September: +0.4% m/m vs. upwardly revised +0.2% m/m in August
  • U.S. weekly jobless claims: 217K vs. 214K previous
  • U.S. Core PCE Price Index came as expected at 0.5% in September, inline with the August read; the annualized read of 5.1% y/y was slightly below expectations
  • U.S. Personal income in September: +0.4% m/m vs. an upwardly revised August read of +0.4% m/m
  • U.S. UOM consumer sentiment for October: 59.9 vs. the preliminary read of 59.8, and above the September read of 58.6
  • On Monday, Rishi Sunak was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party, making him the next prime minister of Britain.
  • U.K. Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 45.8 vs. 48.4 previous; Services PMI at 47.5 vs. 50.0 previous; output and demand continue to weaken; political uncertainty added to inflationary pressures contributed to downbeat sentiment
  • U.K. bond prices rallied on Monday as traders bet that new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will put an end to weeks of upheaval plaguing the nation’s markets and restore credibility to economic policy making
  • U.K. CBI manufacturing output for October -4%, the same as September, but sees output to increase over the next three months; firms seeing a shortage of skilled labor is at its highest level since 1973 at 49%; New orders fell -8% q/q vs. +11% q/q in July
  • The unveiling of a highly anticipated strategy for stabilizing the nation’s public finances was pushed back by Britain’s new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday to Nov. 17, two and a half weeks later than originally anticipated.
  • Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 45.7 vs. 47.8 previous; Services PMI at 44.9 vs. 45.0 previous
  • Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 46.6 vs. 48.4 in September; Services PMI at 48.2 vs. 48.8 previous; inflationary pressure remain due to high energy prices and rising wages
  • Germany Ifo business climate index in October ticked lower to 84.3 vs. a revised 84.4 read in September
  • Euro area M3 money supply growth for September: +6.3% y/y vs. 6.1% y/y in August; private loans increased by 5.5% y/y vs. 5.6% y/y in August
  • German GfK consumer climate index improved from -42.8 to -41.9 in Oct
  • Spanish jobless rate ticked higher from 12.5% to 12.7% in Q3 vs. 12.4% forecast
  • The European Central Bank raised the deposit rate from 0.75% to 1.50% as expected; future policy path will be decided during the upcoming meetings
  • Germany posted unexpected Q3 growth — up by 0.3% q/q vs. -0.2% q/q expected
  • France CPI for October; 7.1% y/y vs. 6.4% y/y forecast
  • Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 92.27 in September to 90.93 in October
  • The Bank of Canada hike interest rates by 50 bps to 3.75% vs. an expectation of a 75 bps hike; the BOC sees growth slowing through the first half of 2023
  • Canada GDP for August: +0.1% m/m vs. 0.0% m/m forecast
  • RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said on Tuesday that despite the fact that inflation in New Zealand was higher than anticipated in the third quarter, the central bank remains “hopeful” that it has peaked.
  • ANZ’s survey shows a 6 point drop in business confidence in October to -43; inflation pressures remain high with expectations at 6.13%
  • RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr warned on Thursday that the central banks efforts to slow inflation will likely slow down employment conditions in the near-term
  • New Zealand consumer confidence for October: unchanged at 85.4 vs. previous
  • Australia manufacturing PMI slows from 53.5 to 52.8 in October; Services PMI contracts from 50.6 to 49.0 in October
  • RBA Assitant Governor Christopher said on Monday that further rates are likely, but the timing and size wil depend on data
  • Australia’s annual inflation races from 6.1% y/y to a 32-year high of 7.3% y/y in September; CPI jumped 1.8% m/m vs. 1.6% m/m forecast
  • RBA’s trimmed mean CPI jumped from 4.9% y/y to 6.1% y/y, much higher than RBA’s 2% – 3% target
  • Australian import prices up by 3.0% q/q in Q3 vs. a projected 0.8% q/q uptick
  • Australia producer price index read for September quarter rose 1.9% q/q (1.4% q/q previous) and 6.4% y/y
  • Japan flash manufacturing PMI for October: 50.7 from 50.8 in September; Services PMI was higher at 53.0 vs. 52.2 in September, likely due to increasing travel volumes
  • Bank of Japan was suspected to have intervened again on Monday after the yen jumped against the dollar to 145.50 during the Asian session. Japan officials continued to refuse to make comments on any possible intervention actions.
  • BOJ core CPI read was up from 1.9% y/y in August to 2.0% y/y in September
Education, Forex, Investing Strategies, Market, News, Technical Analysis
12 months ago by

EURUSD – Technical Overview 18, Oct

The EUR/USD pair has room to extend its gains according to the daily chart, as it managed to advance beyond a mildly bearish 20 SMA, now facing resistance around 0.9980, where a daily descendant trend line coming from the year high at 1.1494 stands. The same chart shows that technical indicators aim firmly higher, the Momentum well above its 100 level, but the RSI at around its 50 level.  

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair rallied above its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one about to cross above the longer one, both around 0.9750. The 200 SMA provides resistance at 0.9865, while technical indicators hold near overbought levels, supporting another leg higher in the near term.

Support levels: 0.979,0 0.9750, 0.9710

Resistance levels: 0.9865, 0.9900, 0.9940
Economic Calendar Tab, Education, Forex, Market, News
12 months ago by

Forex Market Weekly Recap : 10, Oct – 14, Oct

News and Economic Update:

  • China Caixin services PMI fell to 49.3 in September from 55.0 in August.
  • Russia unleashed its most broad air assaults since the start of the Ukraine war on Monday, showering cruise missiles on cities during rush hour to avenge a blown-up bridge.
  • The IMF estimated that global GDP will drop to 2.7% next year, 0.2% lower than its July forecast, and that 2023 will feel like a recession for millions.
  • On Tuesday, G7 leaders began an emergency meeting to examine the latest round of missile attacks that Russian forces conducted against Ukraine.
  • Bank of England expanded its emergency purchase to include inflation-linked debt in an effort to stop a rapid sell-off in the 2.3 trillion pound market for British government bonds.
  • The Bank Of Korea has raised its key base interest rate 50 bps to 3.00% as expected
  • API reports surprise 7.05M build in oil stockpiles
  • EIA: U.S. crude supply up by 9.9 million barrels for the week ended Oct 7, the most since March 2021
  • The Central Bank of Chile hike its interest rate by 50 bps to 11.25% on Friday, but suggested that they may hold off on rate moves at their next meeting.
  • The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy once again by re-centering its policy band
  • According to Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans, as supply chain pressures ease, there are some indications that inflation is slowing down.
  • According to Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is clear that restrictive monetary policy is necessary to reduce inflation, but the direction and rate of rate increases will remain “data-dependent.”
  • The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index improved to 92.1 this month, marking the second consecutive month of gains.
  • Fed’s Mester says there’s been no progress on inflation, so interest rates need to move higher
  • U.S. Producer Price Index for September: +0.4% m/m vs. -0.1% m/m previous; core PPI was +0.4% m/m vs. +0.2% m/m previous
  • U.S. mortgage interest rates rise to an average of 6.81%, the highest level since 2006; mortgage loan appliction volume fell -2.0% w/w and down -69% y/y
  • U.S. monthly headline CPI up by 0.4% in Sept vs. 0.2 expected, core CPI also higher at 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimates; Annualized U.S. inflation slows to 8.2% –the lowest in seven months – but still higher than 8.1% estimates
  • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from the most recent meeting showed that the FOMC members are surprised that inflation has been persistent and pulling back at a slower-than-expected pace.
  • The Bank of England announced an expansion of its emergency bond-buying operation on Tuesday. widening its buying of index-linked gilts from Oct. 11-14.
  • U.K. claimant counts increased in September at 25.5k vs. 4.2k forecast and 6.3k in August; the jobless rate ticked down from 3.6% to 3.5%; average earnings index popped higher from 5.5% to 6.0% vs. 5.9% forecast
  • U.K. GDP in August: -0.3% m/m vs. +0.2% m/m previous; manufacturing production fell -1.6% m/m
  • UK trade deficit widened to 7.1B GBP in August from a downwardly revised 5.4B GBP in July
  • Eurozone industrial production increased by 1.5% m/m in August vs. -2.3% m/m drop in July
  • erman final CPI unchanged at 1.9% m/m or 10% on year-over-year basis
  • August saw the euro zone’s goods trade deficit with the rest of the world rise to about 51 billion euros ($49.7 billion), the largest deficit the group has experienced since Lithuania joined in January 2015 as its 19th member.
  • Germany Wholesale prices jumped in September by 19.9% y/y and 1.6% m/m (vs. 0.1% m/m previous)
  • Swiss Producer and Import Price Index rose by 0.2% m/m in September and +5.4% y/y; The rise was mostly a result of higher prices for steel, raw milk and dairy products, as well as vegetables and potatoes. Products made of aluminum and petroleum, on the other hand, became less expensive.
  • Canada manufacturing sales for August fell -2.0% m/m to $70.4B vs. -0.6% m/m previous
  • Canada Wholesale sales for August: +1.4% m/m to $81.3B vs. -0.6% m/m previous
  • BusinessNZ: New Zealand’s manufacturing sector loses steam, drops from 54.8 to 52.0 in September
  • New Zealand Food Price Index for September: +0.4% m/m vs. 1.1% m/m
  • Australia AiG September services index 48.0 vs 53.3 in Aug.
  • Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment retreated by 0.9% after earlier 3.9% gain
  • Australian NAB business confidence index slipped from 10 to 5 in Sept.
  • Australia Household Spending Index fell 0.5% m/m in September, Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced Tuesday.
  • The Household Spending Intentions Index fell 0.5% in September from a month earlier, Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced Tuesday.
  • Australia’s MI inflation expectations unchanged at 5.4%
  • Japan’s core machinery orders post -5.8% m/m decline, the biggest fall in 6 months. Core orders came in at +9.7% y/y vs. an expectation of +12.6% y/y
  • Japan Reuters Tankan index hits 5-month low of 5 in Oct
  • Japanese producer prices jumped from 9.4% to 9.7% y/y in Sept.
Comex, Economic Calendar Tab, Education, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, News
1 year ago by

Week Ahead in FX: 19, Sep – 23, Sep

Major News & Economics Events:

FOMC interest rate hike (Sept 21, 11:30 pm IST) – Surprisingly higher and stickier inflation in August led some market players to price in a 100 basis point interest rate hike from the Fed last week.

BOJ’s policy announcement (Sept 22, Asian session) – Markets don’t expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to make monetary policy changes this week.

SNB’s monetary policy decision (Sept 22, 01:00 pm IST) – A report printed earlier this month showed Switzerland’s annualized inflation at 3.5% in August, still higher than Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) “less than 2% per year” target.

BOE’s interest rate hike (Sept 22, 04:30 pm IST) – Recall that the Bank of England’s (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) postponed its decision by a week to observe the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Other notable central bank events – Other non-decision central bank events that may cause ripples in the central bankers’ local currencies include RBNZ Gov. Orr’s climate change-themed speech today at 08:30 am IST, RBA’s meeting minutes on Sept 20, 07:00 am IST, ECB President Lagarde’s speech on Sept 20, 10:30 pm IST, and FOMC Gov. Powell’s opening remarks on Friday at 10:30 pm IST

Source: forexfactory.com

Back to Top
Product has been added to your cart
Close