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EURUSD Technical Outlook – 1, Aug

The EUR/USD gave up some of Friday's gains after being unable to rise above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It continues to approach an important uptrend line that stands around 1.0960/65, with a break lower increasing the likelihood of a slide to the July low at 1.0830. On the daily chart, signs are mixed, with Momentum with a downward trend hovering around 100, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving south. Risks look tilted to the downside.

On the 4-hour chart, risks are also tilted to the downside, with the price below the 20-SMA and under 1.1000. A test of the mentioned trendline seems likely if the price drops below 1.0980. A slide under 1.0960 should increase the bearish pressure, exposing last week's low at 1.0943; below that, the next target is the 1.0900 zone. On the upside, a recovery above 1.1040 would improve the outlook for the Euro. For the pair to change the short-term bias to bullish, it needs to break above 1.1105, surpassing a downtrend line and key SMAs.


Market News and Economic Events Update – 05, Aug

  • EUR/USD has been dragged to near 1.0230 as DXY is picking bids ahead of the US NFP. US job market will increase at a diminishing rate as employment levels have reached their full capacity. The downbeat Retail Sales and German Factory Orders indicate a slowdown in Eurozone ahead.
  • Gold price is trading on the front foot, awaiting a sustained move towards the $1,790-$1,792 supply zone. Strong US corporate earnings and economic data combined with the Chinese tech gains have lifted the overall market mood, despite ongoing China’s military threats against Taiwan.
  • USD/JPY – After this week’s dip to the 130.40 area we’re running into resistance at the 134.80 area and 50-day SMA. The bias remains lower while below the 50-day SMA. A move above 134.80 retargets the 136.30 area.
  • EUR/GBP – Having held above the 0.8340 area for three days in a row we’ve squeezed higher with resistance at the 0.8480 area. While below the 0.8480 area, momentum remains negative for a move towards the 0.8300 area.
  • GBP/USD – Saw a sharp fall to 1.2060 before rebounding back above 1.2200, as we look to determine the next move. The 1.1980 area remains a key support level, which while above keeps the prospect of a move back to 1.2300 on the cards.

Economic Events

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