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XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 22, Nov

The American currency lost steam ahead of the US opening, helping XAU/USD to bounce towards the $1,745 price zone. However, sellers rejected the advance around the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily rally, measured between $1,616.52 and $1,786.46 at $1,745.46, with the pair falling to fresh intraday lows afterwards.  The next Fibonacci support, the 38.2% retracement, comes at $1,720.75.

The XAU/USD daily chart shows that technical indicators have retreated further from the overbought levels touched last week, now heading south but holding within positive levels. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads firmly higher, far below the current level, while also below a directionless 100 SMA. 

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, chances are of lower lows. The pair is below a firmly bearish 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes below the current level. The Momentum indicator consolidates within negative levels, but the RSI indicator accelerated south, currently at around 29. 

Support levels: 1,733.00 1,720.75 1,708.30

Resistance levels: 1.745.50 1,758.60 1,771.10

Fundamental Analysis

On Monday, the Mexican peso was the best-performing currency among the 20 global currencies we track, while the Russian rouble showed the weakest results. The U.S. dollar was the leader among majors, while the Japanese yen underperformed.

U.S. Dollar Index On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) increased by 0.47% after Lael Brainard, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair, signalled that the Fed may slow the rate hikes.

Inflation in the U.S. is still very high, so interest rates need to keep growing. However, rate hikes will probably move at a slower pace. According to Reuters, the markets are currently pricing in an 89% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will slow the rate hikes to a half point at the meeting on 14 December. Another 11% bets for a 75 basis point increase. 'Fed speakers have set the tone, reminding markets that there is still a lot of work to be done to bring inflation to heal,' wrote Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at the National Australia Bank. Today's focus will be on the Producer Price Index (PPI), due at 1:30 p.m. GMT. If PPI comes out stronger than expected, DXY will likely rise above 107.00

XAUUSD The gold price dropped sharply on Monday but later recovered and finished the day essentially flat at 1,771.80

XAUUSD continued to rise during the Asian session, backed by the hopes that the Fed would adopt a less hawkish policy. 'Gold has had a very strong run from $1,618 per ounce and is now due for some consolidation short term. However, the overall dominant risk remains very much to the upside,' said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities. Bulls are now targeting 1,800–1,810, but a higher move requires more signals of slowing inflation in the U.S. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators cut their net-short positions by 78% during the first week of November.

EURUSD EURUSD slightly decreased and finished the day at 1.0325.

The euro rose sharply earlier today due to the general weakness of the U.S. dollar. Fabio Panetta, the European Central Bank (ECB) board member, said that the regulator should continue raising rates 'but needs to avoid overtightening, as it could deepen an economic downturn.' Also, the eurozone industrial production rose in September, providing additional support for the euro. Today, traders should pay attention to the release of eurozone GDP data at 10.00 a.m. GMT. A higher-than-expected number will likely push EURUSD above 1.04000.

GBPUSD The British pound lost 0.7% and closed at 1.1752.

GBPUSD surged during the Asian session as the U.S. dollar retreated. Despite disappointing employment figures, which came out earlier today, the British pound managed to rise above 1.18400. The National Institute of Economic Research said that 'The Bank of England (BoE) will probably need to raise the interest rate to 4.75% to bring inflation back to its 2% target, something only likely to be achieved in three years.'

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 15, Nov

The daily chart for the XAUUSD pair favors a continued advance, with market players eyeing a potential breakout of the $1,800 mark. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame consolidate within overbought levels without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, the bright metal develops above its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one advancing below the longer one. Finally, the 200 SMA reinforces the resistance area around the aforementioned threshold, now at $1,803.15.

The near-term picture favors higher highs ahead. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators turned marginally higher despite standing in overbought territory as the pair develops above bullish moving averages. The 20 SMA guides the metal higher, while the 100 SMA is crossing above the 200 SMA, both far below the current level at around $1,670, still reflecting buyers’ strength.

Support levels:  $1,762 and $1,750

Resistance levels: $1,782 and $1,795

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 14, Nov

Gold price is pulling back after witnessing a stellar rally over the past week. The retreat comes as the yellow metal fails to sustain above the August 25 peak at $1,766. The immediate support is now seen at Friday’s low of $1,747, below which a sharp drop toward the September 12 high at $1,735 will be in the offing. The bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south after probing the overbought territory, justifying the pullback in the Gold price.

If the upside regains traction, then Gold bulls could recapture the abovementioned resistance at $1,766, making another attempt to test the three-month highs at $1,772. The next relevant target for Gold buyers is seen at the confluence of the bearish 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) and the August top near the $1,805 mark.

XAU/USD Fundamental Update – U.S. CPI DATA

Gold price is posting small gains above the $1,700 mark, as bulls turn cautious ahead of the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States. The US inflation data is of utmost significance in determining the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike outlook. A softer US core CPI print is likely to bolster expectations of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike. The monthly US CPI is seen rising to 0.6% while the annualized inflation rate is seen softening to 8.0%. The Core CPIs are likely to ease across the time horizon, suggesting signs of peak inflation. Gold price could resume its uptrend on a softer US CPI-induced renewed US Dollar weakness and a risk rally. Markets are currently pricing a 57% probability of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike.

Week Ahead in FX: 19, Sep – 23, Sep

Major News & Economics Events:

FOMC interest rate hike (Sept 21, 11:30 pm IST) – Surprisingly higher and stickier inflation in August led some market players to price in a 100 basis point interest rate hike from the Fed last week.

BOJ’s policy announcement (Sept 22, Asian session) – Markets don’t expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to make monetary policy changes this week.

SNB’s monetary policy decision (Sept 22, 01:00 pm IST) – A report printed earlier this month showed Switzerland’s annualized inflation at 3.5% in August, still higher than Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) “less than 2% per year” target.

BOE’s interest rate hike (Sept 22, 04:30 pm IST) – Recall that the Bank of England’s (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) postponed its decision by a week to observe the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Other notable central bank events – Other non-decision central bank events that may cause ripples in the central bankers’ local currencies include RBNZ Gov. Orr’s climate change-themed speech today at 08:30 am IST, RBA’s meeting minutes on Sept 20, 07:00 am ISTECB President Lagarde’s speech on Sept 20, 10:30 pm IST, and FOMC Gov. Powell’s opening remarks on Friday at 10:30 pm IST

Source: forexfactory.com

Forex Market Recap : 12 Sep – 16 Sep

News and Economic Update:

  • President Zelensky says Ukraine retook 6K sqm from Russian control this month
  • U.S. Consumer prices rose in August and the annual growth rate slowed less than expected
  • U.K. headline consumer inflation slowed in August to 9.9% y/y but still remains way hot; core CPI ticked higher to 6.3% y/y
  • ZEW economic sentiment in Europe weakened to -60.7 vs. -54.9 previous
  • Australia’s unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.5% and net jobs gain came in below expectations as 33.5K
  • EIA crude oil inventories rose by 2.4M barrels
  • The German government took temporary control of two subsidiaries of the Russian energy giant Rosneft on Friday
  • FedEx Corp. sees business conditions deteriorating, and possibly will get worse, fueling global recession bets further ahead of the weekend.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to up attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, and pledging to continue military operation despite recent setbacks.
  • In August, the U.S. consumer price index rose by 0.1% m/m . The inflation gauge increased 0.6% when food and energy were excluded, which is higher than anticipated.
  • U.S. budget deficit widens to $220B in August, up by 29% from the same month last year
  • Homebuyers’ demand for U.S. mortgages declined 29% since last year as interest rates rise above 6%.
  • U.S. industrial production contracts by 0.2% (vs. 0.2% uptick expected) on lower utilities output
  • UK July GDP up by 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected, -0.6% in June
  • UK’s industrial production dips by 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected, -0.9% in June
  • UK manufacturing production improves by 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected, -1.6% previous
  • GDP grew in July by +0.2% q/q but the outlook remains one of recession – NIESR
  • The seasonally adjusted Italian industrial production index rose 0.4% m/m in July 2022. The recent three months’ average dropped 1.6% from the prior three.
  • According to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, the European Central Bank would have to keep raising interest rates if the current trend in consumer prices continues.
  • ZEW’s economic sentiment index for Germany declined to -61.9 from -55.3 in August. Reuters economists predicted -60.0 for September.
  • Swiss producer prices dip by another 0.1% vs. estimated 0.1% uptick
  • Canadian manufacturing sales declined 0.9% to $71.6B in July, mainly driven by the primary metal, petroleum and coal, and furniture and associated products industries.
  • Canada Housing Starts for August: -3% m/m to 267,443 units
  • NZ current account deficit narrows from 6.5B NZD to 5.22B NZD in Q2 2022
  • Australian Westpac consumer sentiment index rebounded by 3.9% m/m vs. -3% m/m previous
  • AU new home sales down by another 1.6% in August after 13.1% slide in July
  • Australia’s MI inflation expectations slowed from 5.9% to 5.4%
  • Australia added 33.5K jobs in August vs. estimated 35.5K gain
  • Japan’s core machinery orders surprisingly gain by 5.3% vs. 0.6% decline expected in July

Source: forexfactory.com

Daily Forex Update

NZ new housing consents jump back up from -2.2% to 5% in July

BRC: inflation in UK shops climbs to highest rate on record

Japan’s July industrial output rises 1.0% on month vs. 0.5% decline expected

Japan’s retail sales up by 2.4% vs. 1.5% annual gain in June

NZ ANZ business confidence improves from -56.7 to -47.8

China’s manufacturing PMI rises, but factory activity still in contraction

China’s services sector activity expands at slower pace in August

China’s Shenzhen enters new four-day lockdown over COVID-19 outbreak

Japanese consumer confidence improves from 30.2 to 32.5 in August

Oil prices climb 1% as U.S. fuel inventories fall

Russian stocks hit 3-month high as Gazprom surges on dividend plan; rouble dips

China coal shares soar as investors bet economics will trump emissions concerns

Upcoming Forex Economic Calendar

Eurozone’s flash CPI reports at 9:00 am GMT
FOMC member Mester to give a speech in Ohio at 12:00 pm GMT
U.S. ADP report at 12:15 pm GMT
Canada’s monthly GDP at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. Chicago PMI at 1:45 pm GMT
EIA crude oil inventories at 2:30 pm GMT

Source: forexfactory.com

What is Risk?

What is Risk?

All investments involve some degree of risk. In finance, risk refers to the degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss inherent in an investment decision.  In general, as investment risks rise, investors seek higher returns to compensate themselves for taking such risks.

Every saving and investment product has different risks and returns.  Differences include: how readily investors can get their money when they need it, how fast their money will grow, and how safe their money will be. In this section, we are going to talk about a number of risks investors face.  They include:

Business Risk

With a stock, you are purchasing a piece of ownership in a company.  With a bond, you are loaning money to a company.  Returns from both of these investments require that that the company stays in business. If a company goes bankrupt and its assets are liquidated, common stockholders are the last in line to share in the proceeds.  If there are assets, the company’s bondholders will be paid first, then holders of preferred stock.  If you are a common stockholder, you get whatever is left, which may be nothing.

If you are purchasing an annuity make sure you consider the financial strength of the insurance company issuing the annuity.  You want to be sure that the company will still be around, and financially sound, during your payout phase.

Volatility Risk

Even when companies aren’t in danger of failing, their stock price may fluctuate up or down.  Large company stocks as a group, for example, have lost money on average about one out of every three years.  Market fluctuations can be unnerving to some investors.  A stock’s price can be affected by factors inside the company, such as a faulty product, or by events the company has no control over, such as political or market events.

Inflation Risk

Inflation is a general upward movement of prices.  Inflation reduces purchasing power, which is a risk for investors receiving a fixed rate of interest.  The principal concern for individuals investing in cash equivalents is that inflation will erode returns.

Interest Rate Risk

Interest rate changes can affect a bond’s value.  If bonds are held to maturity the investor will receive the face value, plus interest.  If sold before maturity, the bond may be worth more or less than the face value.  Rising interest rates will make newly issued bonds more appealing to investors because the newer bonds will have a higher rate of interest than older ones.  To sell an older bond with a lower interest rate, you might have to sell it at a discount.

Liquidity Risk

This refers to the risk that investors won’t find a market for their securities, potentially preventing them from buying or selling when they want. This can be the case with the more complicated investment products.  It may also be the case with products that charge a penalty for early withdrawal or liquidation such as a certificate of deposit (CD).

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