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Forex, Gain and Loss calculator, Indices, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

EURUSD Technical Outlook – 1, Aug

The EUR/USD gave up some of Friday's gains after being unable to rise above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It continues to approach an important uptrend line that stands around 1.0960/65, with a break lower increasing the likelihood of a slide to the July low at 1.0830. On the daily chart, signs are mixed, with Momentum with a downward trend hovering around 100, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving south. Risks look tilted to the downside.

On the 4-hour chart, risks are also tilted to the downside, with the price below the 20-SMA and under 1.1000. A test of the mentioned trendline seems likely if the price drops below 1.0980. A slide under 1.0960 should increase the bearish pressure, exposing last week's low at 1.0943; below that, the next target is the 1.0900 zone. On the upside, a recovery above 1.1040 would improve the outlook for the Euro. For the pair to change the short-term bias to bullish, it needs to break above 1.1105, surpassing a downtrend line and key SMAs.

Source: fxstreet.com
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
11 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 21, Dec

Gold price needs to recapture the previous high of $1,821 to challenge the multi-month top at $1,825. Acceptance above the latter will initiate a fresh upswing toward the $1,830 round figure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned but holds comfortably above the midline, suggesting that any pullback in Gold price remains a ‘good buying’ opportunity.

Further, the bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,782 is on the verge of cutting the horizontal 200DMA at $1,785 from below, awaiting confirmation of another Bull Cross. The upward-sloping 50DMA pierced through 100DMA for the upside last week, which could be partly attributed to the renewed upside in the Gold price.

However, if Gold bulls fail to take out the $1,825 resistance, then a reversal toward the 200DMA support. Ahead of that the December 14 high of $1,814 could be tested. Also, the $1,800 threshold will offer strong support to Gold buyers should the retracement gather traction.
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
12 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 19, Dec

Gold price is seeing a fresh ray of light, as it closed the previous week above the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,786. That said, buyers could extend their control amid a bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is inching higher above the midline, currently standing at 57.98.

Meanwhile, the upward-sloping 50DMA has pierced the flattish 100DMA from below but traders await the confirmation of a Bull Cross on a daily closing basis. The immediate upside hurdle is placed at the $1,800 level, above which the December 15 high at $1,809 will be put to test once again. Acceptance above the latter could trigger a fresh upswing toward the multi-month high of $1,824.

On the flip side, the 200DMA resistance-turned-support could restrict any pullbacks. A daily closing below the 200DMA could challenge bullish commitments at the ascending 21DMA at $1,775. A decisive close below the 21DMA support will negate the ongoing upside momentum.
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
12 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 16, Dec

Gold price has found buyers once again near the mildly bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,772, prompting a tepid bounce toward the bearish 200DMA at $1,787. A sustained break above the latter is needed to extend the recovery momentum toward the $1,800 level. The next upside target is envisioned at the previous day’s high of $1,809.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching slightly higher while above the midline, suggesting that there is more room for recovery. Adding credence to the bullish potential, the upward-sloping 50DMA is set to cut the flattish 100DMA from below, which if materialized on a daily closing baiss will confirm a Bull Cross.

On the flip side, daily closing below the 21DMA support is critical to negate the bullish thesis. A sharp drop toward the previous week’s low at $1,766 will be on cards, if Gold bears flex their muscles below the 21DMA. Further south, the November-end lows near $1,740 could be on Gold sellers’ radars.
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
12 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Overview – 13, Dec

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that it retreated below the 200 SMA, which is now providing dynamic resistance at around 1,791.20. A more relevant one is the daily high of $1,797.10. The 20 SMA has turned flat below the current level but still stands well above the 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators ease within positive levels, reflecting the ongoing slide rather than suggesting more declines ahead.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The bright metal has extended its decline below a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while the longer ones remain far below the current level. The Momentum indicator, in the meantime, is now flat at around its 100 line, while the RSI heads firmly south at around 46, anticipating a potential slide.

Support levels: 1,775.15 1,762.70 1,749.10  

Resistance levels: 1,797.10 1,807.30 1,818.90
Economic Calendar Tab, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Uncategorized
12 months ago by

Weekly FX Recap 5 Dec – 9 Dec

News & Economic Updates:

  • China services activity index shrunk from 48.4 in October to six-month low of 46.7 in November
  • J.P.Morgan Global PMI Output Index fell to 48.0 in November from 49.0 in October; Global Services Business Activity Index fell to 48.1 in November from 49.2 in October
  • EIA crude oil inventories fell by 5.2M barrels vs. projected reduction of 3.5M barrels
  • China’s exports (-8.7% y/y) and imports (-10.6% y/y) shrank at their steepest pace in at least 2.5 years
  • China announced on Wednesday that asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and people with mild symptoms can now quarantine at home
  • Ethereum devs announced on Thursday that the “Shanghai” hard fork’s projected release date will be in March 2023. This upgrade will add the EIP 4895 code, which will allow withdrawals of staked ether (ETH) from the Beacon Chain.
  • Shanghai to remove COVID test requirement for food and entertainment venues; “Hong Kong is expected to loosen up COVID restrictions on isolation and masking
  • More than 14,000 barrels of crude oil leaked into a creek in Kansas, prompting Canadian company TC Energy to shut down its Keystone pipeline in the U.S.

FOREX MARKET WEEKLY RECAP

  • ISM Services Index in November: 56.5 from 54.4 in October
  • U.S. Factory Orders in October: 1.0% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in September
  • U.S. Trade Deficit: $78.2 billion in October vs. $78.1 billion in September
  • U.S. Consumer Credit in October came in below expectations at $27.1B but above the previous month, which was revised higher to $25.8B
  • Weekly Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 230K in the week ending December 3rd vs. 226K the previous week.
  • U.S. Producer Price Index for November: +0.3% m/m +0.3% m/m previous; core PPI at +0.4%
  • Preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index for December: 59.1 vs. 56.8, above expectations of 56.9
  • UK new car sales up more than 20% in November
  • U.K. BRC retail sales monitor rose from 1.2% to 4.1% y/y in Nov
  • U.K. Construction PMI for November: 50.4 vs. 53.2 in October
  • Halifax: U.K. house prices fall 2.3% from October to November, the fastest rate in 14 years
  • U.K. RICS survey showed most widespread drop in house prices since May 2020
  • ECB’s Lagarde says inflation hasn’t peaked, may surprise to the upside
  • Eurozone Services Business Activity Index was at 48.5 in November vs. 48.6 in October
  • France Services PMI for November: 49.3 from 51.7 in October
  • Germany Services PMI for November: 46.1 vs. 46.5 in October; prices remain elevated
  • The volume of retail trade in the euro area was down by -1.8% m/m in October 2022 and by -1.7% m/m in the European Union
  • Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -21.0 in Dec. vs. -27.1 forecast; the expectations index rose to -22.0 vs. -32.3 previous
  • Germany industrial production declined by 0.1% in Oct (vs. 1.1% in Sept) as high energy prices take toll
  • Swiss jobless rate rose from 1.9% to 2.0% as expected in November, below 2.1% forecast
  • Canada Ivey PMI: 51.4 in November vs. 50.1 in October; Employment Index ticks down to 54.3; Prices Index decreased from 69.8 to 63.5
  • The value of Canada’s merchandise exports increased by 1.5% in October, while the value of its imports rose by 0.6%. As a direct consequence of this, the merchandise trade surplus that Canada enjoyed with the rest of the world increased from $607M in September to $1.2B in October.
  • Bank of Canada raised the overnight interest rate by 50 bps to 4.25% on Wednesday; hinted that the they may be nearing the end of the tightening cycle
  • Canada Capacity Utilization Rate for Q3: 82.6% vs. 82.8% previous
  • Global Daily Trade Price Index rose +0.6% to $3.60 since the last auction
  • NZ manufacturing sales improve from -3.2% to 5.1% q/q in Q3 2022
  • NZ credit card spending up by 0.3% from October to November as consumers spend more on essentials
  • AU construction contraction improves from 43.3 to 48.2 in November
  • AU MI inflation gauge accelerates from 0.4% to a four-month high of 1.0% in November
  • RBA hiked interest rates by 25bp from 2.85% to 3.10% as expected
  • Australian Q3 current account balance showed 2.3B AUD deficit vs. projected 5.9B AUD surplus
  • AIG PMI: Australia’s services sector shrunk from 47.7 to 45.6 in November on weakening demand
  • Japanese Oct household spending down from 2.3% to 1.2% y/y vs. 0.9% forecast; Real wages fell -2.6% y/y
  • Japan’s Economy Watchers sentiment index down from 49.9 to 48.1 in Nov.
  • The recent weakness of the yen & rising oil prices caused Japan to record its first current account deficit in nine months in October, the Finance Ministry reported on Thursday. The shortfall was ¥64.1B ($470 million).
  • Japan GDP for Q3 2022 was revised higher to -0.2% q/q vs. -0.3% q/q previous
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
12 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 9, Dec

Looking at the daily chart, the renewed upside in the Gold price is likely to gain momentum, as bulls have recaptured the mildly bearish 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,792.

With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing north above the midline, Gold price remains on course to retest the five-month highs at $1,810. The next key resistance is seen at the upper boundary of the month-long rising wedge pattern, now placed at $1,816.

In case, the Gold price yields a weekly closing below the 200DMA on a renewed selling pressure, then the correction could resume toward the lower boundary of the wedge at $1,777.

Daily closing below the abovementioned rising trendline support could confirm a reversal to the ongoing uptrend, as it will validate a bearish wedge.

The horizontal (dashed) trendline at $1,725 could come to Gold buyers’ rescue, although they need to beat the bullish 21DMA at $1,767 first.
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Psychology, Technical Analysis
12 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook- 5, Dec

Gold price is retreating to test the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,796, at the time of writing.

Gold bulls reclaimed that barrier for the first time since mid-June on Thursday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat just beneath the overbought territory, justifying the latest leg down in Gold price.

Should the 200DMA resistance-turned-support give way, then a drop toward the November 15 high at $1,787 cannot be ruled out.

The next corrective target is seen at the previous day’s low of $1,768, below which floors will open up for a test of the bullish 21DMA at $1,749.

Alternatively, Gold buyers year for a weekly closing above the 200DMA, above which the $1,800 mark will be challenged once again.

Further up, the previous day’s high at $1,805 and the August 10 top at $1,808 will be put to test.
Comex, Education, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Psychology
12 months ago by

Week Ahead in FX (5, Dec – 9, Dec)

Major Economic Events:

RBA monetary policy decision (Dec. 6, 3:30 am GMT) – First up, we’ve got Australia’s central bank scheduled to announce their rate decision early in the week

Australia’s Q3 GDP (Dec. 7, 12:30 am GMT) – The action ain’t over for Aussie pairs even after the RBA decision, as the country’s third quarter GDP is up for release the next day.

BOC monetary policy statement (Dec. 7, 3:00 pm GMT) – Canada’s central bank is also expected to announce a 0.25% interest rate hike this week, slowing down from its earlier 0.50% rate increase.

U.S. leading inflation data – Uncle Sam has a couple of leading indicators on inflation to watch out for, namely the ISM services PMI due early in the week and the PPI report scheduled on Friday.

Chinese CPI and PPI (Dec. 9, 1:30 am GMT) – Weaker price pressures are eyed for China, as both the CPI and PPI might print subdued readings for November.

Source: forexfactory.com
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Technical Analysis
1 year ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 22, Nov

The American currency lost steam ahead of the US opening, helping XAU/USD to bounce towards the $1,745 price zone. However, sellers rejected the advance around the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily rally, measured between $1,616.52 and $1,786.46 at $1,745.46, with the pair falling to fresh intraday lows afterwards.  The next Fibonacci support, the 38.2% retracement, comes at $1,720.75.

The XAU/USD daily chart shows that technical indicators have retreated further from the overbought levels touched last week, now heading south but holding within positive levels. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads firmly higher, far below the current level, while also below a directionless 100 SMA. 

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, chances are of lower lows. The pair is below a firmly bearish 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes below the current level. The Momentum indicator consolidates within negative levels, but the RSI indicator accelerated south, currently at around 29. 

Support levels: 1,733.00 1,720.75 1,708.30

Resistance levels: 1.745.50 1,758.60 1,771.10

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