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XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 14, Feb

From a technical perspective, a sustained break and acceptance below the 50-day SMA, currently around the $1,856 region, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The gold price could then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $1,830 area en route to the $1,818-$1,817 zone and the $1,800 round figure.

On the flip side, any subsequent move up is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $1,875 region. This is followed by the $1,900 round-figure mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, above which a bout of a short-covering could lift the Gold price to the $1,925-$1,930 congestion zone.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 1, Feb

Spot gold plunged on US Dollar demand, with XAU/USD bottoming at $1,900.70 a troy ounce on Tuesday.  Risk aversion dominated the first half of the day, but American traders experienced new hopes and turned their back on the Greenback, pushing the bright metal into positive ground.

The catalyst for the US Dollar decline was a minor report that US Federal Reserve officials have been paying close attention to. The United States Employment Cost Index rose in the last quarter of 2022 by 1%, below the 1.1% expected and easing from 1.2% in the previous quarter. Additional signs of easing inflationary pressures boosted high-yielding stocks ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, reviving hopes for a soon-to-come pivot. The American central bank is widely anticipated to hike rates by 25 bps, minimizing the odds of a severe recession.

At the same time, US Treasury yields retreated from their recent highs, with the 10-year note currently offering 3.53%, down 2 bps. Meanwhile, stocks managed to change course. European indexes trimmed their early losses and settled mixed around their opening levels, while US indexes trade in the green.


XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 31, Jan

The near-term soft tone falls short of anticipating a steeper decline. In the daily chart, technical indicators ease but remain well above their midlines, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) barely correcting overbought conditions. At the same time, the bright metal develops well above a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which heads north far above the longer ones. Finally, the same chart shows that buyers are defending the downside in the $1,910 price zone.

The 4-hour chart offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair is meeting near-term sellers around a flat 20 SMA, although the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their firmly bullish slopes below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels, although lacking directional strength.

Support levels: 1,910.00 1,896.50 1,884.30

Resistance levels: 1,935.10 1,950.00 1,966.15


XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 27, Jan

Having witnessed a fakeout to the upside from a rising wedge formation on Tuesday, bears took charge and triggered a corrective decline in the Gold price on Friday.

In doing so, Gold price closed the day below the lower boundary of the wedge, then at $1,940, validating a rising wedge breakdown. The natural tendency of the rising wedge is usually to yield a downside break, which eventually materialized on the United States Gross Domestic Product release.

Gold sellers need to crack a strong support near $1,918 to challenge the weekly low at $1,911. Should the correction deepen in the Gold price, the $1,900 round level could be put at risk.

With, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, in the positive territory above the midline, Gold price still remains a good buying opportunity on pullbacks.

On the upside, powerful resistance near the $1,950 psychological barrier remains a tough nut to crack for Gold bulls. Ahead of that, Gold price needs to find acceptance back above the $1,940 round figure.

A firm break above the $1,950 hurdle will call for a test of the next resistance placed around April 20 2022 highs near $1,958.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 24, Jan

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair favors a bullish continuation, but the price is currently facing resistance around the $1,935 zone. The pair topped last week at $1,937.47. The metal needs to consolidate above $1,935.00 to open the door to an upward extension. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame remain within overbought readings. The RSI is moving south, about to slide below 70. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads firmly north, far below the current level but above the longer ones at around $1,869.40.

For the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is slightly biased to the downside. The rebound from $1,910 took Gold back above the 20-SMA in the mentioned chart ($1,920) avoiding a deterioration in the technical outlook. If it drops back below it, attention would turn to $1,912, the last strong defence before the critical $1,900.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 19, Jan

The XAU/USD pair trades flat for the day, with no signs of giving up further ground. The daily chart shows that technical indicators corrected extreme overbought readings before turning flat well into positive territory without signaling more weakness ahead. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads north almost vertically, far below the current level while above the longer ones, reflecting buyers' strength.

The 4-hour chart suggests the pair could fall further in the near term. It was unable to sustain gains above a mildly bullish 20 SMA and is back below the indicator, although still far above a bullish 100 SMA, currently at around $1,858.15. Finally, technical indicators turned south and pierced their midlines, maintaining their firmly bearish slopes within neutral levels. A break below the daily low at $1,890.54 could see the current corrective decline extending towards the $1,850 region.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 18, Jan

The XAU/USD pair retains its bullish potential intact, despite the lack of follow-through from these last few days. The daily chart shows that technical indicators are barely correcting overbought conditions but without enough strength to suggest a continued slide. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads firmly north, well above the longer ones, which also gain upward traction.

Near-term buyers defend the downside at around $1,900, and the 4-hour chart shows absent selling interest. XAU/USD is repeatedly bouncing from a bullish 20 SMA, currently at around $1,908.90. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, keep advancing below the shorter one, reflecting buyers’ strength. Finally, the Momentum indicator eased towards its midline but remains above it, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lost its directional strength and hovers around 60, maintaining the risk skewed to the upside.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 17, Jan

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that technical indicators are barely retreating from extreme overbought readings, far from confirming an interim top. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 72, somehow suggesting bulls are not willing to give up. At the same time, the pair is developing far above its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly north and providing dynamic support at around $1,840.40.

The 4-hour chart shows that bulls retain control of the pair. Technical indicators turned flat within positive levels after correcting extreme overbought readings, reflecting the absence of selling interest. At the same time, moving averages head firmly north, far below the current level, with the 20 SMA currently at around $1,899.70.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 13, Jan

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that it holds above the previous weekly high at $1,886.63, an immediate support level. The Momentum indicator resumed its advance within positive levels but remains below its weekly high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) index grinds higher, currently advancing at around 70.  At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerated north well above the longer ones while below the current level, all of which hints at continued buying pressure.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the case for a bullish continuation is clear. A firmly bullish 20 SMA keeps leading the way higher by providing intraday support, currently at around $1,878.10. The longer moving averages also head higher, well below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels, ending the consolidative phase from the last few days.

Support levels: 1,878.10 1,867.05 1,856.90

Resistance levels: 1,901.70 1,914.20 1,926.00

XAU/USD Technical Outlook 0

Gold price grinds near a multi-day high after crossing an upward-sloping resistance line from early October 2022, now immediate support around $1,860. The upside momentum also takes clues from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator’s bullish signals and the firmer Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14.

It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI line is near the overbought territory and also portrays a lower-high formation since early November, which in turn suggests a limited upside room for the XAU/USD.

As a result, June’s high near $1,880 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the Gold’s March-September 2022 downturn, near $1,897, quickly followed by the $1,900 threshold, gain the market’s attention.

In a case where the Gold price remains firmer past $1,900, multiple hurdles surrounding $1,915, $1,935 and $1,965 could challenge the buyers before directing them to the $2,000 psychological magnet.

Alternatively, a downside break of the $1,860 resistance-turned-support could drag the XAU/USD to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,842. However, the 21-Day Moving Average (DMA) and August month’s high, respectively around $1,811 and $1,807, could restrict the Gold price downside afterward.

Overall, Gold seems to have a limited upside room even if the bullish bias remains intact.

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