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3 months ago by

Weekly FX Recap 19,Dec – 23, Dec

News & Economic Updates:

Despite the central bank’s efforts to increase lending and loosen limits on property loans, China’s credit grew at a little slower pace than predicted in November at 2T yuan ($287 billion) vs. a forecast of 2.1T yuan.

U.S. inflation data came in below expectations at 7.1% y/y vs. 7.3% forecast

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the target interest rate range by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected on Wednesday.

China’s COVID and property sector weakness caused disappointing business and consumer activities data (industrial output, fixed asset investment, retail sales) in November

China sees full-blown outbreaks of COVID cases in major cities like Beijing, just a few weeks after easing up on zero-COVID policies. According to public health officials, China is facing a COVID surge that could lead to around 800M people being infected in the next few months

On Thursday, four central banks from Europe raised interest rates:

  • The European Central bank raised their key interest rate 50 bps to 2.00%
  • The Bank of England bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 3.50%
  • The Swiss National Bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 1.00%
  • Norway’s central bank raised their benchmark rate 25 bps to 2.75%

Global flash business survey data for December was released on Friday, with most surveys showing contractionary conditions.

  • U.S. Budget Deficit in November: -$249B vs. -$248B forecast
  • U.S. CPI for November: +7.1% y/y vs. +7.3% y/y forecast; Core CPI +6.0% y/y vs. +6.1% y/y forecast
  • U.S. Import Prices in November: -0.6% m/m vs. -0.4% m/m previous (-0.2% m/m forecast)
  • he FOMC raised rates by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected; Fed dot plot now sees “terminal rate” at 5.1% in 2023, no rate cut until 2024; Powell said that they have “some ways to go” on rates and it will take “substantially more evidence” to convince the Fed that inflation is on a sustained downward path
  • U.S. Retail Sales for November: -0.6% m/m vs. 1.3% m/m in October
  • U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fell by 20K to 211K vs. the previous week
  • NY Manufacturing Index dropped to -11.2 in November vs. 4.5 previous
  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI in December: 46.2 vs. 47.7 previous
  • The U.K. economy expanded by +0.5% m/m vs. a +0.4% m/m forecast in October
  • U.K. Oct manufacturing production advanced 0.7% m/m after previous flat reading; industrial production was flat in Oct. vs. a projected 0.1% m/m dip
  • U.K. jobless rate edges up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October
  • U.K.’s real wages down by 2.7% (3m/3m) in October despite 6.1% wage increase
  • On Tuesday, the Bank of England issued a warning regarding “considerable pressure” on consumers and companies as a result of rising inflation and borrowing prices.
  • Germany Final CPI read for November: +10.0% y/y and -0.5% m/m
  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to -23.3 in December vs. -36.7 in November
  • Euro area Industrial Production in October: -2.0% m/m; down by -1.9% m/m in the EU
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for December: 47.8 vs. 47.1 in November
  • Euro zone final CPI for November was revised higher to 10.1% y/y vs. 10.0% y/y prelim.
  • Euro zone Trade Balance for October was a deficit of -€26.5B vs. -€36.4B previous
  • The Swiss government expects an economic slowdown in 2023 to a below-average rate of 1.0%, but no recession.
  • Swiss producer prices index dropped by 0.5% m/m in Nov. to 109.2
  • Swiss central bank hikes interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.00% to counter a “further spread of inflation”
  • Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said on Monday that he’d rather raise rates too much than too little
  • Canada Manufacturing Sales in October: +2.8% m/m to $72.6B
  • Canada Housing Starts in November dipped to 264,159 from 264,581 units in October (255K forecast) – CMHC
  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for October: +6.8% m/m vs. +16.6% m/m previous
  • According to data released on Wednesday by Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand’s current account deficit for the third quarter of 2022 was NZ$5.9B
  • REINZ: New Zealand house prices fall -12.3% m/m  in November as interest rates bite
  • New Zealand GDP was up by +2.0% q/q in Q3 (vs. +0.9% q/q expected, +1.9% uptick in Q2) as borders fully reopened
  • Australia’s consumer inflation expectations moved lower from 6.0% to 5.2% in December – Melbourne Institute
  • Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 3.4% in November as 64,000 new jobs added
  • Australian flash manufacturing PMI down from 51.3 to 50.4 in Dec.
  • Australian flash services PMI fell from 47.6 to 46.9 in Dec.
  • Japanese Nov preliminary machine tool orders fell 7.8% y/y, following previous 5.5% drop
  • Japan Producer Price Index for November: +9.3% y/y vs. 8.9% y/y forecast
  • Japan Large Businesses Manufacturing Survey Index for Oct. – Dec. 2022: -3.6 vs. 1.7 previous
  • Japanese Tankan manufacturing index down from 8 to 7 in Nov vs. consensus at 6; non-manufacturing index up from 14 to 19 in Nov

Source: forexfactory.com
Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Market Hours, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 1, Dec

The XAU/USD pair currently trades at around $1,780, positive changed for a sixth consecutive day. The daily chart shows that the Momentum indicator is pressuring its 100 level to the downside, reflecting the lack of upward strength. At the same time, the RSI indicator consolidates at around 59, maintaining the risk skewed to the upside. Furthermore, the 20 SMA heads north below the current level, providing dynamic support at around $1,737.40.

The near-term picture reflects the ongoing slide but falls short of supporting a downward extension. The pair is trading above the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily advance at $1,745.50, while a bullish 100 SMA converges with the mentioned Fibonacci level. The 20 SMA is flat, with the price seesawing around it, while technical indicators turned lower but remain within neutral levels. A clear break below the aforementioned static support level could open the door for a stepper decline towards the $1,725 price zone.

Support levels: 1,765.50 1,757.40 1,735.65  

Resistance levels: 1790, 1805, 1815
Education, Forex, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, Position Size Calculator, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

GBP/USD Technical Outlook – 15, Nov

GBPUSD is likely to face stiff resistance at 1.1850 (static level). In case it manages to rise above that level and starts using it as support, it could target 1.1900 (former support, psychological level) and 1.2000 (psychological level).

On the downside, 1.1800 (psychological level, static level) aligns as initial support before 1.1750 (20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.1700 (psychological level, static level).

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart stays below 70, suggesting that GBPUSD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market Hours, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 15, Nov

The daily chart for the XAUUSD pair favors a continued advance, with market players eyeing a potential breakout of the $1,800 mark. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame consolidate within overbought levels without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, the bright metal develops above its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one advancing below the longer one. Finally, the 200 SMA reinforces the resistance area around the aforementioned threshold, now at $1,803.15.

The near-term picture favors higher highs ahead. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators turned marginally higher despite standing in overbought territory as the pair develops above bullish moving averages. The 20 SMA guides the metal higher, while the 100 SMA is crossing above the 200 SMA, both far below the current level at around $1,670, still reflecting buyers’ strength.

Support levels:  $1,762 and $1,750

Resistance levels: $1,782 and $1,795
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 14, Nov

Gold price is pulling back after witnessing a stellar rally over the past week. The retreat comes as the yellow metal fails to sustain above the August 25 peak at $1,766. The immediate support is now seen at Friday’s low of $1,747, below which a sharp drop toward the September 12 high at $1,735 will be in the offing. The bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south after probing the overbought territory, justifying the pullback in the Gold price.

If the upside regains traction, then Gold bulls could recapture the abovementioned resistance at $1,766, making another attempt to test the three-month highs at $1,772. The next relevant target for Gold buyers is seen at the confluence of the bearish 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) and the August top near the $1,805 mark.
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Fundamental Update – U.S. CPI DATA

Gold price is posting small gains above the $1,700 mark, as bulls turn cautious ahead of the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States. The US inflation data is of utmost significance in determining the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike outlook. A softer US core CPI print is likely to bolster expectations of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike. The monthly US CPI is seen rising to 0.6% while the annualized inflation rate is seen softening to 8.0%. The Core CPIs are likely to ease across the time horizon, suggesting signs of peak inflation. Gold price could resume its uptrend on a softer US CPI-induced renewed US Dollar weakness and a risk rally. Markets are currently pricing a 57% probability of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike.
Economic Calendar Tab, Education, Forex, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News
9 months ago by

Weekly FX economic events (18-22 JULY)

This week may be full of volatility for the currency market. Better watch out for these central bank announcements, CPI data, and flash PMIs. If you are thinking of taking trade on any economic event then you need to read this blog.

Major Economic Events:

U.K. CPI (July 20, 6:00 am GMT) – First up we’ve got another glimpse into U.K. inflation, which has been rising enough to keep their policymakers on edge. Another uptick in price pressures is expected for June, with the headline figure projected to advance from 9.1% to 9.3%. A stronger than expected increase would once again feed into fears of a downturn in consumer spending and ultimately a recession. This could also up the pressure on the BOE to increase borrowing costs in their next meeting.

Canada’s inflation data (July 20, 12:30 pm GMT) – With the BOC recently surprising the markets with a huge interest rate hike last week, traders are keen to find out whether or not the latest round of inflation measures could spur another aggressive tightening move.

Headline CPI likely climbed from 7.7% to 8.3% year-over-year in June while the core reading probably dipped from 6.1% to 5.9%.

BOJ monetary policy statement (July 21) – It will be the BOJ’s turn to announce their policy decision but, unlike most of its peers, the Japanese central bank will likely stand pat. BOJ officials don’t seem to be alarmed by the surge in price pressures just yet, even welcoming the sharp drop in the yen’s value as it also spurs inflation.

ECB monetary policy statement (July 21, 12:15 pm GMT) – The main event for the week will likely be the ECB decision, as the central bank is widely expected to announce its first rate hike in more than a decade. It might not be such a huge deal like the Fed’s though, since the increase is only expected to come in at a measly 0.25%. What euro traders are more keen to find out is whether this tightening move is the first of many or just a one-off thing. Many expect the ECB to outline a roadmap for its rate hikes for the rest of the year, with some even banking on a larger 0.50% hike sometime in September.

Flash PMI readings (July 22) – It’s the third week of the month, so we’ve got the flash PMI reports lined up! The top eurozone economies will get the ball rolling, with France likely printing another set of declines in its manufacturing (51.4 to 51.1) and services (53.9 to 53.1) PMIs. Germany might also report a slower pace of growth in the manufacturing (52.0 to 50.9) and services (52.4 to 51.4) industry. In the U.K., the flash manufacturing PMI likely improved from 52.8 to 53.5 to signal a faster pace of expansion while the flash services PMI probably dipped from 54.3 to 53.6.

Source : forexfactory.com

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