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Comex, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
2 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 1, Feb

Spot gold plunged on US Dollar demand, with XAU/USD bottoming at $1,900.70 a troy ounce on Tuesday.  Risk aversion dominated the first half of the day, but American traders experienced new hopes and turned their back on the Greenback, pushing the bright metal into positive ground.

The catalyst for the US Dollar decline was a minor report that US Federal Reserve officials have been paying close attention to. The United States Employment Cost Index rose in the last quarter of 2022 by 1%, below the 1.1% expected and easing from 1.2% in the previous quarter. Additional signs of easing inflationary pressures boosted high-yielding stocks ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, reviving hopes for a soon-to-come pivot. The American central bank is widely anticipated to hike rates by 25 bps, minimizing the odds of a severe recession.

At the same time, US Treasury yields retreated from their recent highs, with the 10-year note currently offering 3.53%, down 2 bps. Meanwhile, stocks managed to change course. European indexes trimmed their early losses and settled mixed around their opening levels, while US indexes trade in the green.

Source: fxstreet.com
Comex, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
2 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 31, Jan

The near-term soft tone falls short of anticipating a steeper decline. In the daily chart, technical indicators ease but remain well above their midlines, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) barely correcting overbought conditions. At the same time, the bright metal develops well above a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which heads north far above the longer ones. Finally, the same chart shows that buyers are defending the downside in the $1,910 price zone.

The 4-hour chart offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair is meeting near-term sellers around a flat 20 SMA, although the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their firmly bullish slopes below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels, although lacking directional strength.

Support levels: 1,910.00 1,896.50 1,884.30

Resistance levels: 1,935.10 1,950.00 1,966.15

Source: fxstreet.com
Comex, Market, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

Technical Outlook XAU/USD – 11, Jan

XAU/USD holds on to its recent gains, hovering around its opening level. The daily chart shows that the price is developing far above its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly north above the longer ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, extend their consolidative phase near overbought levels, reflecting the absence of selling interest while maintaining the risk skewed to the upside.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, chances of a steeper decline seem limited. The pair is moving back and forth in a tight $20 range. Technical indicators turned marginally lower but hold near overbought readings, reflecting decreasing buying interest rather than suggesting fresh selling. At the same time, XAU/USD holds far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA providing dynamic support at around $1,860.50.

Support levels: 1,860.50 1,843.10 1,825.00 

Resistance levels: 1,883.50 1,897.45 1,910.00
Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Market, News, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 4, Jan

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that it holds on to modest daily gains despite shedding $20 from its intraday top. The risk remains skewed to the upside according to technical readings, as gold remains above all of its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its bullish slope above the longer ones. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned north within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) advances at around 62, reflecting the dominant upward trend.

The near-term picture suggests XAU/USD could keep declining but also that the bullish trend remains firmly in place. Despite the sharp pullback, the metal remains above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA  providing dynamic support at around $1,819.30. Technical indicators are retreating sharply from overbought readings but still holding within positive levels and far from their midlines. A break through the mentioned 20 SMA could lead to a steeper decline, but buyers will likely take their chances at around $1,800.
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 29,Dec

On a two-hour scale, the Gold price is trading in a Rising Channel chart pattern that signals volatility contraction. The upper portion of the aforementioned chart pattern is placed from November 15 high at $1,786.55 while the lower portion is plotted from November 28 low at $1,739.82.

The precious metal has picked strength after dropping to near the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,802.20. Also, the 200-EMA at $1,793.35 is aiming higher, which indicates that the upside bias is still solid.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which signals that Gold price is awaiting a fresh trigger for a decisive move.
Comex, Economic Calendar Tab, Education, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News
3 months ago by

Weekly FX Recap 19,Dec – 23, Dec

News & Economic Updates:

Despite the central bank’s efforts to increase lending and loosen limits on property loans, China’s credit grew at a little slower pace than predicted in November at 2T yuan ($287 billion) vs. a forecast of 2.1T yuan.

U.S. inflation data came in below expectations at 7.1% y/y vs. 7.3% forecast

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the target interest rate range by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected on Wednesday.

China’s COVID and property sector weakness caused disappointing business and consumer activities data (industrial output, fixed asset investment, retail sales) in November

China sees full-blown outbreaks of COVID cases in major cities like Beijing, just a few weeks after easing up on zero-COVID policies. According to public health officials, China is facing a COVID surge that could lead to around 800M people being infected in the next few months

On Thursday, four central banks from Europe raised interest rates:

  • The European Central bank raised their key interest rate 50 bps to 2.00%
  • The Bank of England bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 3.50%
  • The Swiss National Bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 1.00%
  • Norway’s central bank raised their benchmark rate 25 bps to 2.75%

Global flash business survey data for December was released on Friday, with most surveys showing contractionary conditions.

  • U.S. Budget Deficit in November: -$249B vs. -$248B forecast
  • U.S. CPI for November: +7.1% y/y vs. +7.3% y/y forecast; Core CPI +6.0% y/y vs. +6.1% y/y forecast
  • U.S. Import Prices in November: -0.6% m/m vs. -0.4% m/m previous (-0.2% m/m forecast)
  • he FOMC raised rates by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected; Fed dot plot now sees “terminal rate” at 5.1% in 2023, no rate cut until 2024; Powell said that they have “some ways to go” on rates and it will take “substantially more evidence” to convince the Fed that inflation is on a sustained downward path
  • U.S. Retail Sales for November: -0.6% m/m vs. 1.3% m/m in October
  • U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fell by 20K to 211K vs. the previous week
  • NY Manufacturing Index dropped to -11.2 in November vs. 4.5 previous
  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI in December: 46.2 vs. 47.7 previous
  • The U.K. economy expanded by +0.5% m/m vs. a +0.4% m/m forecast in October
  • U.K. Oct manufacturing production advanced 0.7% m/m after previous flat reading; industrial production was flat in Oct. vs. a projected 0.1% m/m dip
  • U.K. jobless rate edges up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October
  • U.K.’s real wages down by 2.7% (3m/3m) in October despite 6.1% wage increase
  • On Tuesday, the Bank of England issued a warning regarding “considerable pressure” on consumers and companies as a result of rising inflation and borrowing prices.
  • Germany Final CPI read for November: +10.0% y/y and -0.5% m/m
  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to -23.3 in December vs. -36.7 in November
  • Euro area Industrial Production in October: -2.0% m/m; down by -1.9% m/m in the EU
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for December: 47.8 vs. 47.1 in November
  • Euro zone final CPI for November was revised higher to 10.1% y/y vs. 10.0% y/y prelim.
  • Euro zone Trade Balance for October was a deficit of -€26.5B vs. -€36.4B previous
  • The Swiss government expects an economic slowdown in 2023 to a below-average rate of 1.0%, but no recession.
  • Swiss producer prices index dropped by 0.5% m/m in Nov. to 109.2
  • Swiss central bank hikes interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.00% to counter a “further spread of inflation”
  • Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said on Monday that he’d rather raise rates too much than too little
  • Canada Manufacturing Sales in October: +2.8% m/m to $72.6B
  • Canada Housing Starts in November dipped to 264,159 from 264,581 units in October (255K forecast) – CMHC
  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for October: +6.8% m/m vs. +16.6% m/m previous
  • According to data released on Wednesday by Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand’s current account deficit for the third quarter of 2022 was NZ$5.9B
  • REINZ: New Zealand house prices fall -12.3% m/m  in November as interest rates bite
  • New Zealand GDP was up by +2.0% q/q in Q3 (vs. +0.9% q/q expected, +1.9% uptick in Q2) as borders fully reopened
  • Australia’s consumer inflation expectations moved lower from 6.0% to 5.2% in December – Melbourne Institute
  • Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 3.4% in November as 64,000 new jobs added
  • Australian flash manufacturing PMI down from 51.3 to 50.4 in Dec.
  • Australian flash services PMI fell from 47.6 to 46.9 in Dec.
  • Japanese Nov preliminary machine tool orders fell 7.8% y/y, following previous 5.5% drop
  • Japan Producer Price Index for November: +9.3% y/y vs. 8.9% y/y forecast
  • Japan Large Businesses Manufacturing Survey Index for Oct. – Dec. 2022: -3.6 vs. 1.7 previous
  • Japanese Tankan manufacturing index down from 8 to 7 in Nov vs. consensus at 6; non-manufacturing index up from 14 to 19 in Nov

Source: forexfactory.com
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 19, Dec

Gold price is seeing a fresh ray of light, as it closed the previous week above the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,786. That said, buyers could extend their control amid a bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is inching higher above the midline, currently standing at 57.98.

Meanwhile, the upward-sloping 50DMA has pierced the flattish 100DMA from below but traders await the confirmation of a Bull Cross on a daily closing basis. The immediate upside hurdle is placed at the $1,800 level, above which the December 15 high at $1,809 will be put to test once again. Acceptance above the latter could trigger a fresh upswing toward the multi-month high of $1,824.

On the flip side, the 200DMA resistance-turned-support could restrict any pullbacks. A daily closing below the 200DMA could challenge bullish commitments at the ascending 21DMA at $1,775. A decisive close below the 21DMA support will negate the ongoing upside momentum.
Comex, Investing Strategies, Market, News, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook- 14, Dec

Technical readings in the XAU/USD daily chart favor another leg north. Gold has broken above its former multi-month high of $1,810.08, an immediate support level, while it also extended its rally above a mildly bearish 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA). The 20 SMA remains far below the current level, recovering its bullish slope, while technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD lost momentum, but bulls retain control. The pair is well above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction above the longer ones. Technical indicators remain within positive levels but turned lower, reflecting the ongoing slide rather than anticipated another leg lower.

Support levels: 1,810.00 1,798.70 1,786.15

Resistance levels: 1,824.55 1,833.10 1,846.20
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Overview – 13, Dec

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that it retreated below the 200 SMA, which is now providing dynamic resistance at around 1,791.20. A more relevant one is the daily high of $1,797.10. The 20 SMA has turned flat below the current level but still stands well above the 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators ease within positive levels, reflecting the ongoing slide rather than suggesting more declines ahead.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The bright metal has extended its decline below a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while the longer ones remain far below the current level. The Momentum indicator, in the meantime, is now flat at around its 100 line, while the RSI heads firmly south at around 46, anticipating a potential slide.

Support levels: 1,775.15 1,762.70 1,749.10  

Resistance levels: 1,797.10 1,807.30 1,818.90
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 9, Dec

Looking at the daily chart, the renewed upside in the Gold price is likely to gain momentum, as bulls have recaptured the mildly bearish 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,792.

With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing north above the midline, Gold price remains on course to retest the five-month highs at $1,810. The next key resistance is seen at the upper boundary of the month-long rising wedge pattern, now placed at $1,816.

In case, the Gold price yields a weekly closing below the 200DMA on a renewed selling pressure, then the correction could resume toward the lower boundary of the wedge at $1,777.

Daily closing below the abovementioned rising trendline support could confirm a reversal to the ongoing uptrend, as it will validate a bearish wedge.

The horizontal (dashed) trendline at $1,725 could come to Gold buyers’ rescue, although they need to beat the bullish 21DMA at $1,767 first.

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