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XAU/USD Technical Overview – 29, Nov

The XAU/USD daily chart shows another failure to hold above the $1,760 zone, a sign of difficulties for gold bulls. The positive for the yellow metal is that it remains well above the 20 and 100 SMAs. The Momentum indicator turned south, although it remains above the 100 level. RSI also is now pointing to the downside. The main trend remains bullish but the outlook favors some correction ahead while limited by $1,760. A decline under $1,720 would increase the bearish pressure.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is pointing to the downside. The critical level in the chart is seen around $1,735 that should keep losses controlled. A break lower would put deteriorated further the outlook for the yellow metal, exposing the recent low at $1,720$. Technical indicators are directionless.

Support levels: 1,735.50 1,720.75 1,703.00  

Resistance levels: 1,760.00 1,771.10 1,785.00

EUR/USD Technical Overview – 28, Nov

EUR/USD is displaying a lackluster performance in the Tokyo session after resurfacing from the critical support of 1.0382. The Euro pair is oscillating above the round-level support of 1.0400. The major is awaiting a potential trigger for a fresh impetus as the market mood is extremely quiet amid the holiday in the United States on account of Thanksgiving Day.

EUR/USD is playing with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0389 on a daily scale. The corrective move in the asset after printing a high of 1.0482 on November 15 to near 1.0226 has been supported by the upward-sloping trendline placed from November low at 0.9730. Going forward, potential resistances are plotted from June 27 high at 1.0615, and May 30 high at 1.0787.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the upside momentum is active.

Fundamental Analysis

On Monday, the Mexican peso was the best-performing currency among the 20 global currencies we track, while the Russian rouble showed the weakest results. The U.S. dollar was the leader among majors, while the Japanese yen underperformed.

U.S. Dollar Index On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) increased by 0.47% after Lael Brainard, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair, signalled that the Fed may slow the rate hikes.

Inflation in the U.S. is still very high, so interest rates need to keep growing. However, rate hikes will probably move at a slower pace. According to Reuters, the markets are currently pricing in an 89% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will slow the rate hikes to a half point at the meeting on 14 December. Another 11% bets for a 75 basis point increase. 'Fed speakers have set the tone, reminding markets that there is still a lot of work to be done to bring inflation to heal,' wrote Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at the National Australia Bank. Today's focus will be on the Producer Price Index (PPI), due at 1:30 p.m. GMT. If PPI comes out stronger than expected, DXY will likely rise above 107.00

XAUUSD The gold price dropped sharply on Monday but later recovered and finished the day essentially flat at 1,771.80

XAUUSD continued to rise during the Asian session, backed by the hopes that the Fed would adopt a less hawkish policy. 'Gold has had a very strong run from $1,618 per ounce and is now due for some consolidation short term. However, the overall dominant risk remains very much to the upside,' said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities. Bulls are now targeting 1,800–1,810, but a higher move requires more signals of slowing inflation in the U.S. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators cut their net-short positions by 78% during the first week of November.

EURUSD EURUSD slightly decreased and finished the day at 1.0325.

The euro rose sharply earlier today due to the general weakness of the U.S. dollar. Fabio Panetta, the European Central Bank (ECB) board member, said that the regulator should continue raising rates 'but needs to avoid overtightening, as it could deepen an economic downturn.' Also, the eurozone industrial production rose in September, providing additional support for the euro. Today, traders should pay attention to the release of eurozone GDP data at 10.00 a.m. GMT. A higher-than-expected number will likely push EURUSD above 1.04000.

GBPUSD The British pound lost 0.7% and closed at 1.1752.

GBPUSD surged during the Asian session as the U.S. dollar retreated. Despite disappointing employment figures, which came out earlier today, the British pound managed to rise above 1.18400. The National Institute of Economic Research said that 'The Bank of England (BoE) will probably need to raise the interest rate to 4.75% to bring inflation back to its 2% target, something only likely to be achieved in three years.'

GBP/USD Technical Outlook – 15, Nov

GBPUSD is likely to face stiff resistance at 1.1850 (static level). In case it manages to rise above that level and starts using it as support, it could target 1.1900 (former support, psychological level) and 1.2000 (psychological level).

On the downside, 1.1800 (psychological level, static level) aligns as initial support before 1.1750 (20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.1700 (psychological level, static level).

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart stays below 70, suggesting that GBPUSD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 14, Nov

Gold price is pulling back after witnessing a stellar rally over the past week. The retreat comes as the yellow metal fails to sustain above the August 25 peak at $1,766. The immediate support is now seen at Friday’s low of $1,747, below which a sharp drop toward the September 12 high at $1,735 will be in the offing. The bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south after probing the overbought territory, justifying the pullback in the Gold price.

If the upside regains traction, then Gold bulls could recapture the abovementioned resistance at $1,766, making another attempt to test the three-month highs at $1,772. The next relevant target for Gold buyers is seen at the confluence of the bearish 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) and the August top near the $1,805 mark.

XAU/USD Technical outlook – 11, Nov

Gold price is seeing a brief so-called bull flag formation on the daily timeframe, taking cues from the recent price action.

Therefore, another leg higher cannot be ruled out toward the $1,800 mark, especially after the bright metal closed Thursday above the psychological $1,750 barrier. The bearish 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) aligns near the $1,800 level.

The bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still lurks beneath the overbought territory, suggesting that there is more room to the upside.

Before resuming the uptrend, Gold price could correct toward the $1,740 round figure, below which the October high at $1,730 will be back in play

XAU/USD Fundamental Update – U.S. CPI DATA

Gold price is posting small gains above the $1,700 mark, as bulls turn cautious ahead of the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States. The US inflation data is of utmost significance in determining the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike outlook. A softer US core CPI print is likely to bolster expectations of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike. The monthly US CPI is seen rising to 0.6% while the annualized inflation rate is seen softening to 8.0%. The Core CPIs are likely to ease across the time horizon, suggesting signs of peak inflation. Gold price could resume its uptrend on a softer US CPI-induced renewed US Dollar weakness and a risk rally. Markets are currently pricing a 57% probability of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 08, Nov

After Friday’s descending triangle formation-led big breakout, Gold price has entered into a phase of upside consolidation while defending the bearish 50-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,673. So long as the abovementioned barrier is held, the bullish potential remains intact for the bullion, with a retest of Friday’s high at $1,683 likely to pave the way toward the $1,700 threshold.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding flat above the midline, supporting the recent rally in Gold price.

On a firm break below the 50DMA, sellers will target the triangle resistance-turned-support at $1,658. Further south, the horizontal 21DMA at $1,653 could come to the rescue of bulls.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook – 3, Nov

The EUR/USD pair closed a third consecutive day below the 0.9900 level and near a fresh weekly low of 0.9821, which lifts the risk of a bearish extension in the upcoming sessions. Technically speaking, the pair is breaking below the 50% retracement of its latest daily advance between 0.9630 and 1.0093 at 0.9856, another bearish hint. The daily chart shows that the pair is currently battling a flat 20 SMA while a bearish 100 SMA heads firmly lower at around 1.0065. Finally, technical indicators resumed their declines, with the Momentum just above its 100 level and the RSI already below its midline.

The 4-hour chart favors a bearish extension, particularly if the pair breaks below the 0.9800 price zone. Technical indicators have gained bearish strength within negative levels, supporting further declines, while a firmly bearish 20 SMA continues to reject buyers.

Support levels: 0.9800 0.9760 0.9615

Resistance levels: 0.9865 0.9910 0.9970

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 3 Nov


From a near-term technical perspective, despite the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lurking below the midline, a dovish Fed rate hike could turn the table against bears, allowing XAU/USD bulls to recapture the bearish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,660 convincingly.  Gold bulls could flex their muscles towards the end-October high at $1,675 while gathering strength to challenge the $1,700 mark.

However, on a hawkish surprise, gold price could resume its broader downtrend, with the initial support seen at the recent range lows around $1,638. The next downside cap is aligned at the $1,620 round number, below which the October low at $1,617 could be threatened.

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