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Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Market, News, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 4, Jan

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that it holds on to modest daily gains despite shedding $20 from its intraday top. The risk remains skewed to the upside according to technical readings, as gold remains above all of its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its bullish slope above the longer ones. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned north within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) advances at around 62, reflecting the dominant upward trend.

The near-term picture suggests XAU/USD could keep declining but also that the bullish trend remains firmly in place. Despite the sharp pullback, the metal remains above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA  providing dynamic support at around $1,819.30. Technical indicators are retreating sharply from overbought readings but still holding within positive levels and far from their midlines. A break through the mentioned 20 SMA could lead to a steeper decline, but buyers will likely take their chances at around $1,800.
Comex, Economic Calendar Tab, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, News, Technical Analysis
3 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 28, Dec

Gold price marked another defeat from the $1,825 horizontal resistance, despite refreshing a six-month high while ticking up to $1,833. However, firmer prints of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), placed at 14, joined the bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator, to keep XAU/USD bulls hopeful of another battle with the $1,825 hurdle.

During the Gold’s successful trading beyond $1,825, June’s top near $1,880 and late March swing low around $1,890 can test the XAU/USD buyers before offering them the $1,900 threshold.

Alternatively, a one-week-old ascending support line, close to $1,803, precedes the $1,800 round figure to restrict the short-term Gold downside.

Also acting as the key challenges for the Gold sellers is an upward-sloping support line from early December, close to $1,780, as well as the 200-SMA support near $1,778.

Overall, firmer oscillators join the higher-low formation of the Gold price to keep buyers on the table.
Comex, Economic Calendar Tab, Education, Forex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News
3 months ago by

Weekly FX Recap 19,Dec – 23, Dec

News & Economic Updates:

Despite the central bank’s efforts to increase lending and loosen limits on property loans, China’s credit grew at a little slower pace than predicted in November at 2T yuan ($287 billion) vs. a forecast of 2.1T yuan.

U.S. inflation data came in below expectations at 7.1% y/y vs. 7.3% forecast

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the target interest rate range by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected on Wednesday.

China’s COVID and property sector weakness caused disappointing business and consumer activities data (industrial output, fixed asset investment, retail sales) in November

China sees full-blown outbreaks of COVID cases in major cities like Beijing, just a few weeks after easing up on zero-COVID policies. According to public health officials, China is facing a COVID surge that could lead to around 800M people being infected in the next few months

On Thursday, four central banks from Europe raised interest rates:

  • The European Central bank raised their key interest rate 50 bps to 2.00%
  • The Bank of England bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 3.50%
  • The Swiss National Bank raised their interest rate 50 bps to 1.00%
  • Norway’s central bank raised their benchmark rate 25 bps to 2.75%

Global flash business survey data for December was released on Friday, with most surveys showing contractionary conditions.

  • U.S. Budget Deficit in November: -$249B vs. -$248B forecast
  • U.S. CPI for November: +7.1% y/y vs. +7.3% y/y forecast; Core CPI +6.0% y/y vs. +6.1% y/y forecast
  • U.S. Import Prices in November: -0.6% m/m vs. -0.4% m/m previous (-0.2% m/m forecast)
  • he FOMC raised rates by 50 bps to 4.25% – 4.50% range as expected; Fed dot plot now sees “terminal rate” at 5.1% in 2023, no rate cut until 2024; Powell said that they have “some ways to go” on rates and it will take “substantially more evidence” to convince the Fed that inflation is on a sustained downward path
  • U.S. Retail Sales for November: -0.6% m/m vs. 1.3% m/m in October
  • U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fell by 20K to 211K vs. the previous week
  • NY Manufacturing Index dropped to -11.2 in November vs. 4.5 previous
  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI in December: 46.2 vs. 47.7 previous
  • The U.K. economy expanded by +0.5% m/m vs. a +0.4% m/m forecast in October
  • U.K. Oct manufacturing production advanced 0.7% m/m after previous flat reading; industrial production was flat in Oct. vs. a projected 0.1% m/m dip
  • U.K. jobless rate edges up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October
  • U.K.’s real wages down by 2.7% (3m/3m) in October despite 6.1% wage increase
  • On Tuesday, the Bank of England issued a warning regarding “considerable pressure” on consumers and companies as a result of rising inflation and borrowing prices.
  • Germany Final CPI read for November: +10.0% y/y and -0.5% m/m
  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to -23.3 in December vs. -36.7 in November
  • Euro area Industrial Production in October: -2.0% m/m; down by -1.9% m/m in the EU
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for December: 47.8 vs. 47.1 in November
  • Euro zone final CPI for November was revised higher to 10.1% y/y vs. 10.0% y/y prelim.
  • Euro zone Trade Balance for October was a deficit of -€26.5B vs. -€36.4B previous
  • The Swiss government expects an economic slowdown in 2023 to a below-average rate of 1.0%, but no recession.
  • Swiss producer prices index dropped by 0.5% m/m in Nov. to 109.2
  • Swiss central bank hikes interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.00% to counter a “further spread of inflation”
  • Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said on Monday that he’d rather raise rates too much than too little
  • Canada Manufacturing Sales in October: +2.8% m/m to $72.6B
  • Canada Housing Starts in November dipped to 264,159 from 264,581 units in October (255K forecast) – CMHC
  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for October: +6.8% m/m vs. +16.6% m/m previous
  • According to data released on Wednesday by Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand’s current account deficit for the third quarter of 2022 was NZ$5.9B
  • REINZ: New Zealand house prices fall -12.3% m/m  in November as interest rates bite
  • New Zealand GDP was up by +2.0% q/q in Q3 (vs. +0.9% q/q expected, +1.9% uptick in Q2) as borders fully reopened
  • Australia’s consumer inflation expectations moved lower from 6.0% to 5.2% in December – Melbourne Institute
  • Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 3.4% in November as 64,000 new jobs added
  • Australian flash manufacturing PMI down from 51.3 to 50.4 in Dec.
  • Australian flash services PMI fell from 47.6 to 46.9 in Dec.
  • Japanese Nov preliminary machine tool orders fell 7.8% y/y, following previous 5.5% drop
  • Japan Producer Price Index for November: +9.3% y/y vs. 8.9% y/y forecast
  • Japan Large Businesses Manufacturing Survey Index for Oct. – Dec. 2022: -3.6 vs. 1.7 previous
  • Japanese Tankan manufacturing index down from 8 to 7 in Nov vs. consensus at 6; non-manufacturing index up from 14 to 19 in Nov

Source: forexfactory.com
Comex, Investing Strategies, Market, News, Technical Analysis
4 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook- 14, Dec

Technical readings in the XAU/USD daily chart favor another leg north. Gold has broken above its former multi-month high of $1,810.08, an immediate support level, while it also extended its rally above a mildly bearish 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA). The 20 SMA remains far below the current level, recovering its bullish slope, while technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD lost momentum, but bulls retain control. The pair is well above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction above the longer ones. Technical indicators remain within positive levels but turned lower, reflecting the ongoing slide rather than anticipated another leg lower.

Support levels: 1,810.00 1,798.70 1,786.15

Resistance levels: 1,824.55 1,833.10 1,846.20
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market Hours, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 15, Nov

The daily chart for the XAUUSD pair favors a continued advance, with market players eyeing a potential breakout of the $1,800 mark. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame consolidate within overbought levels without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, the bright metal develops above its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one advancing below the longer one. Finally, the 200 SMA reinforces the resistance area around the aforementioned threshold, now at $1,803.15.

The near-term picture favors higher highs ahead. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators turned marginally higher despite standing in overbought territory as the pair develops above bullish moving averages. The 20 SMA guides the metal higher, while the 100 SMA is crossing above the 200 SMA, both far below the current level at around $1,670, still reflecting buyers’ strength.

Support levels:  $1,762 and $1,750

Resistance levels: $1,782 and $1,795
Comex, Education, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 14, Nov

Gold price is pulling back after witnessing a stellar rally over the past week. The retreat comes as the yellow metal fails to sustain above the August 25 peak at $1,766. The immediate support is now seen at Friday’s low of $1,747, below which a sharp drop toward the September 12 high at $1,735 will be in the offing. The bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south after probing the overbought territory, justifying the pullback in the Gold price.

If the upside regains traction, then Gold bulls could recapture the abovementioned resistance at $1,766, making another attempt to test the three-month highs at $1,772. The next relevant target for Gold buyers is seen at the confluence of the bearish 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) and the August top near the $1,805 mark.
Comex, Investing Psychology, Investing Strategies, Market, Market Hours, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Fundamental Update – U.S. CPI DATA

Gold price is posting small gains above the $1,700 mark, as bulls turn cautious ahead of the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States. The US inflation data is of utmost significance in determining the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike outlook. A softer US core CPI print is likely to bolster expectations of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike. The monthly US CPI is seen rising to 0.6% while the annualized inflation rate is seen softening to 8.0%. The Core CPIs are likely to ease across the time horizon, suggesting signs of peak inflation. Gold price could resume its uptrend on a softer US CPI-induced renewed US Dollar weakness and a risk rally. Markets are currently pricing a 57% probability of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike.
Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, Market, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 3 Nov


From a near-term technical perspective, despite the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lurking below the midline, a dovish Fed rate hike could turn the table against bears, allowing XAU/USD bulls to recapture the bearish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,660 convincingly.  Gold bulls could flex their muscles towards the end-October high at $1,675 while gathering strength to challenge the $1,700 mark.

However, on a hawkish surprise, gold price could resume its broader downtrend, with the initial support seen at the recent range lows around $1,638. The next downside cap is aligned at the $1,620 round number, below which the October low at $1,617 could be threatened.
Economic Calendar Tab, Forex, Market, News
5 months ago by

Forex Market Weekly Recap – 24 Oct – 28 Oct

News and Economic Events Update:

  • China’s exports grew by 5.7% y/y to $322.8B in September; it’s the slowest rate of growth since April. Imports inched up by 0.3% y/y vs. 1.0% y/y forecast
  • China GDP for Q3 was 3.9% y/y vs. 3.3% y/y forecast; the unemployment rate increased to 5.5% vs. 5.3% previous
  • CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam said on Monday that  he sees ether as a commodity — not a security.
  • Oil prices jumped on Wednesday on record high U.S. crude exports and strong refining demand; WTI crude broke back above $88/bbl while Brent crude jumped above $96/bbl
  • The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected rate hike of 50 bps vs. a 75 bps forecast
  • Russian President Putin said on Thursday that his nation has never discussed a nuclear strike, and that there was no necessity for Russia to attack Ukraine with nukes.
  • As expected, the European Central Bank raised the deposit rate to 2.00% vs. 1.25% previous
  • The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic projections for Asia to 4.0% for 2022 (vs. a 4.9% forecast back in April) on Friday.
  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles on Friday from the North’s eastern coastal Tongchon area
  • The U.S. Core PCE Price Index annualized read of 5.1% y/y came in slightly below expectations, taming inflation fears a bit during the Friday session.
  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 49.9 vs. 52.0 in September; Services Index at 46.6 vs. 49.3; input cost pressures have increased; employment conditions mostly unchanged
  • U.S. Home Prices growth in August: +13.1% y/y vs. 16.0% y/y in July according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
  • U.S. New home sales fell -10.9% y/y to 603K in September
  • U.S. GDP rebounded slightly in Q3 2022 with the advance read at +2.6% q/q vs. 2.3% q/q forecast
  • U.S. durable goods for September: +0.4% m/m vs. upwardly revised +0.2% m/m in August
  • U.S. weekly jobless claims: 217K vs. 214K previous
  • U.S. Core PCE Price Index came as expected at 0.5% in September, inline with the August read; the annualized read of 5.1% y/y was slightly below expectations
  • U.S. Personal income in September: +0.4% m/m vs. an upwardly revised August read of +0.4% m/m
  • U.S. UOM consumer sentiment for October: 59.9 vs. the preliminary read of 59.8, and above the September read of 58.6
  • On Monday, Rishi Sunak was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party, making him the next prime minister of Britain.
  • U.K. Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 45.8 vs. 48.4 previous; Services PMI at 47.5 vs. 50.0 previous; output and demand continue to weaken; political uncertainty added to inflationary pressures contributed to downbeat sentiment
  • U.K. bond prices rallied on Monday as traders bet that new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will put an end to weeks of upheaval plaguing the nation’s markets and restore credibility to economic policy making
  • U.K. CBI manufacturing output for October -4%, the same as September, but sees output to increase over the next three months; firms seeing a shortage of skilled labor is at its highest level since 1973 at 49%; New orders fell -8% q/q vs. +11% q/q in July
  • The unveiling of a highly anticipated strategy for stabilizing the nation’s public finances was pushed back by Britain’s new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday to Nov. 17, two and a half weeks later than originally anticipated.
  • Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 45.7 vs. 47.8 previous; Services PMI at 44.9 vs. 45.0 previous
  • Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 46.6 vs. 48.4 in September; Services PMI at 48.2 vs. 48.8 previous; inflationary pressure remain due to high energy prices and rising wages
  • Germany Ifo business climate index in October ticked lower to 84.3 vs. a revised 84.4 read in September
  • Euro area M3 money supply growth for September: +6.3% y/y vs. 6.1% y/y in August; private loans increased by 5.5% y/y vs. 5.6% y/y in August
  • German GfK consumer climate index improved from -42.8 to -41.9 in Oct
  • Spanish jobless rate ticked higher from 12.5% to 12.7% in Q3 vs. 12.4% forecast
  • The European Central Bank raised the deposit rate from 0.75% to 1.50% as expected; future policy path will be decided during the upcoming meetings
  • Germany posted unexpected Q3 growth — up by 0.3% q/q vs. -0.2% q/q expected
  • France CPI for October; 7.1% y/y vs. 6.4% y/y forecast
  • Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 92.27 in September to 90.93 in October
  • The Bank of Canada hike interest rates by 50 bps to 3.75% vs. an expectation of a 75 bps hike; the BOC sees growth slowing through the first half of 2023
  • Canada GDP for August: +0.1% m/m vs. 0.0% m/m forecast
  • RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said on Tuesday that despite the fact that inflation in New Zealand was higher than anticipated in the third quarter, the central bank remains “hopeful” that it has peaked.
  • ANZ’s survey shows a 6 point drop in business confidence in October to -43; inflation pressures remain high with expectations at 6.13%
  • RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr warned on Thursday that the central banks efforts to slow inflation will likely slow down employment conditions in the near-term
  • New Zealand consumer confidence for October: unchanged at 85.4 vs. previous
  • Australia manufacturing PMI slows from 53.5 to 52.8 in October; Services PMI contracts from 50.6 to 49.0 in October
  • RBA Assitant Governor Christopher said on Monday that further rates are likely, but the timing and size wil depend on data
  • Australia’s annual inflation races from 6.1% y/y to a 32-year high of 7.3% y/y in September; CPI jumped 1.8% m/m vs. 1.6% m/m forecast
  • RBA’s trimmed mean CPI jumped from 4.9% y/y to 6.1% y/y, much higher than RBA’s 2% – 3% target
  • Australian import prices up by 3.0% q/q in Q3 vs. a projected 0.8% q/q uptick
  • Australia producer price index read for September quarter rose 1.9% q/q (1.4% q/q previous) and 6.4% y/y
  • Japan flash manufacturing PMI for October: 50.7 from 50.8 in September; Services PMI was higher at 53.0 vs. 52.2 in September, likely due to increasing travel volumes
  • Bank of Japan was suspected to have intervened again on Monday after the yen jumped against the dollar to 145.50 during the Asian session. Japan officials continued to refuse to make comments on any possible intervention actions.
  • BOJ core CPI read was up from 1.9% y/y in August to 2.0% y/y in September
Comex, Education, Investing Strategies, News, Technical Analysis
5 months ago by

XAU/USD Technical Overview – 19, Oct

The near-term bearish outlook on gold price remains unchanged even though the metal has made higher lows on the daily chart so far this week.

The new support, in the rising trendline, now at $1,642, still appears at risk amid a bearish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Meanwhile, sellers continue guarding the mildly bearish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,669.

A sustained break above the latter on a daily closing basis is needed to initiate a meaningful recovery towards the $1,700 barrier.

The immediate resistance, however, is seen at the previous intermittent lows at around $1,660.

Meanwhile, acceptance below the $1,640 demand area is critical to kicking off a fresh downswing towards en-route the $1,600 threshold.

Ahead of that, the 2022 lows of $1,615 will challenge bearish commitments.

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