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XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 24, Feb

Gold price remains vulnerable after breaching the key January 5 low at $1,825 support.

Gold bears keep their eyes on the seven-week low of $1,819 before testing the falling trendline support at $1,801.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading well below the midline, suggesting the downside potential remians intact, thus far. for now.

A bear cross is in the making, as the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) is on the verge of  cutting the 50 DMA from above. Confirmation of the bearish crossover could add credence to the downside in the Gold price.

On the flip side, any recovery will need acceptance above the previous day’s high of $1,834 to gain additional traction.

The next stop for Gold bulls is seen at the weekly high of $1,848, above which the $1,850 psychological level could offer stiff resistance.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 25, Jan

The Gold price is on track for a crash should the US dollar bust to life given the placement of the price in the market structure. The US Dollar has been testing the daily trendline resistance as follows:

If this were to break then the Gold price will likely be headed lower, but there is red news scheduled for Thursday so any moves prior to that might be limited and a distribution schematic and higher highs could be more likely in the lead up:

Bullish trendline for Gold price is vulnerable.

A break of Gold price structures is eyed for the days ahead so long as resistance holds. 

A sell-off and capitulation of the Gold price bulls could lead to a significant run towards $1,900. 

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 20 Jan

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair favors a bullish continuation. The pair topped in January at $1,928.93 a troy ounce, the level to surpass to confirm an upward extension.  Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame remain within overbought readings, posting modest advances and without signaling upward exhaustion. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average  (SMA) heads firmly north, far below the current level but above the longer ones at around $1,857.10.

For the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also skews to the upside. Technical indicators have extended their advances within positive levels with moderated bullish strength. Additionally, the pair is comfortably developing above a flat 20 SMA, although the longer ones maintain their upward slopes far below it.

Support levels: 1,906.40 1,896.50 1,884.60

XAU/USD Technical Outlook – 2, Jan

Gold price is auctioning in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a four-hour scale. The horizontal resistance of the aforementioned chart pattern is placed from December 13 high at $1,824.55 while the upward-sloping trendline is plotted from December 16 low at $1,774.36.

Advancing 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,814.77 and $1,807.43 respectively add to the upside filters.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 from the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates more upside ahead.

Weekly FX Recap 5 Dec – 9 Dec

News & Economic Updates:

  • China services activity index shrunk from 48.4 in October to six-month low of 46.7 in November
  • J.P.Morgan Global PMI Output Index fell to 48.0 in November from 49.0 in October; Global Services Business Activity Index fell to 48.1 in November from 49.2 in October
  • EIA crude oil inventories fell by 5.2M barrels vs. projected reduction of 3.5M barrels
  • China’s exports (-8.7% y/y) and imports (-10.6% y/y) shrank at their steepest pace in at least 2.5 years
  • China announced on Wednesday that asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and people with mild symptoms can now quarantine at home
  • Ethereum devs announced on Thursday that the “Shanghai” hard fork’s projected release date will be in March 2023. This upgrade will add the EIP 4895 code, which will allow withdrawals of staked ether (ETH) from the Beacon Chain.
  • Shanghai to remove COVID test requirement for food and entertainment venues; “Hong Kong is expected to loosen up COVID restrictions on isolation and masking
  • More than 14,000 barrels of crude oil leaked into a creek in Kansas, prompting Canadian company TC Energy to shut down its Keystone pipeline in the U.S.


  • ISM Services Index in November: 56.5 from 54.4 in October
  • U.S. Factory Orders in October: 1.0% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in September
  • U.S. Trade Deficit: $78.2 billion in October vs. $78.1 billion in September
  • U.S. Consumer Credit in October came in below expectations at $27.1B but above the previous month, which was revised higher to $25.8B
  • Weekly Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 230K in the week ending December 3rd vs. 226K the previous week.
  • U.S. Producer Price Index for November: +0.3% m/m +0.3% m/m previous; core PPI at +0.4%
  • Preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index for December: 59.1 vs. 56.8, above expectations of 56.9
  • UK new car sales up more than 20% in November
  • U.K. BRC retail sales monitor rose from 1.2% to 4.1% y/y in Nov
  • U.K. Construction PMI for November: 50.4 vs. 53.2 in October
  • Halifax: U.K. house prices fall 2.3% from October to November, the fastest rate in 14 years
  • U.K. RICS survey showed most widespread drop in house prices since May 2020
  • ECB’s Lagarde says inflation hasn’t peaked, may surprise to the upside
  • Eurozone Services Business Activity Index was at 48.5 in November vs. 48.6 in October
  • France Services PMI for November: 49.3 from 51.7 in October
  • Germany Services PMI for November: 46.1 vs. 46.5 in October; prices remain elevated
  • The volume of retail trade in the euro area was down by -1.8% m/m in October 2022 and by -1.7% m/m in the European Union
  • Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -21.0 in Dec. vs. -27.1 forecast; the expectations index rose to -22.0 vs. -32.3 previous
  • Germany industrial production declined by 0.1% in Oct (vs. 1.1% in Sept) as high energy prices take toll
  • Swiss jobless rate rose from 1.9% to 2.0% as expected in November, below 2.1% forecast
  • Canada Ivey PMI: 51.4 in November vs. 50.1 in October; Employment Index ticks down to 54.3; Prices Index decreased from 69.8 to 63.5
  • The value of Canada’s merchandise exports increased by 1.5% in October, while the value of its imports rose by 0.6%. As a direct consequence of this, the merchandise trade surplus that Canada enjoyed with the rest of the world increased from $607M in September to $1.2B in October.
  • Bank of Canada raised the overnight interest rate by 50 bps to 4.25% on Wednesday; hinted that the they may be nearing the end of the tightening cycle
  • Canada Capacity Utilization Rate for Q3: 82.6% vs. 82.8% previous
  • Global Daily Trade Price Index rose +0.6% to $3.60 since the last auction
  • NZ manufacturing sales improve from -3.2% to 5.1% q/q in Q3 2022
  • NZ credit card spending up by 0.3% from October to November as consumers spend more on essentials
  • AU construction contraction improves from 43.3 to 48.2 in November
  • AU MI inflation gauge accelerates from 0.4% to a four-month high of 1.0% in November
  • RBA hiked interest rates by 25bp from 2.85% to 3.10% as expected
  • Australian Q3 current account balance showed 2.3B AUD deficit vs. projected 5.9B AUD surplus
  • AIG PMI: Australia’s services sector shrunk from 47.7 to 45.6 in November on weakening demand
  • Japanese Oct household spending down from 2.3% to 1.2% y/y vs. 0.9% forecast; Real wages fell -2.6% y/y
  • Japan’s Economy Watchers sentiment index down from 49.9 to 48.1 in Nov.
  • The recent weakness of the yen & rising oil prices caused Japan to record its first current account deficit in nine months in October, the Finance Ministry reported on Thursday. The shortfall was ¥64.1B ($470 million).
  • Japan GDP for Q3 2022 was revised higher to -0.2% q/q vs. -0.3% q/q previous

Fundamental Analysis

On Monday, the Mexican peso was the best-performing currency among the 20 global currencies we track, while the Russian rouble showed the weakest results. The U.S. dollar was the leader among majors, while the Japanese yen underperformed.

U.S. Dollar Index On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) increased by 0.47% after Lael Brainard, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair, signalled that the Fed may slow the rate hikes.

Inflation in the U.S. is still very high, so interest rates need to keep growing. However, rate hikes will probably move at a slower pace. According to Reuters, the markets are currently pricing in an 89% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will slow the rate hikes to a half point at the meeting on 14 December. Another 11% bets for a 75 basis point increase. 'Fed speakers have set the tone, reminding markets that there is still a lot of work to be done to bring inflation to heal,' wrote Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at the National Australia Bank. Today's focus will be on the Producer Price Index (PPI), due at 1:30 p.m. GMT. If PPI comes out stronger than expected, DXY will likely rise above 107.00

XAUUSD The gold price dropped sharply on Monday but later recovered and finished the day essentially flat at 1,771.80

XAUUSD continued to rise during the Asian session, backed by the hopes that the Fed would adopt a less hawkish policy. 'Gold has had a very strong run from $1,618 per ounce and is now due for some consolidation short term. However, the overall dominant risk remains very much to the upside,' said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities. Bulls are now targeting 1,800–1,810, but a higher move requires more signals of slowing inflation in the U.S. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators cut their net-short positions by 78% during the first week of November.

EURUSD EURUSD slightly decreased and finished the day at 1.0325.

The euro rose sharply earlier today due to the general weakness of the U.S. dollar. Fabio Panetta, the European Central Bank (ECB) board member, said that the regulator should continue raising rates 'but needs to avoid overtightening, as it could deepen an economic downturn.' Also, the eurozone industrial production rose in September, providing additional support for the euro. Today, traders should pay attention to the release of eurozone GDP data at 10.00 a.m. GMT. A higher-than-expected number will likely push EURUSD above 1.04000.

GBPUSD The British pound lost 0.7% and closed at 1.1752.

GBPUSD surged during the Asian session as the U.S. dollar retreated. Despite disappointing employment figures, which came out earlier today, the British pound managed to rise above 1.18400. The National Institute of Economic Research said that 'The Bank of England (BoE) will probably need to raise the interest rate to 4.75% to bring inflation back to its 2% target, something only likely to be achieved in three years.'

XAU/USD Technical Outlook

Following this week’s indecisive price action, gold’s near-term technical outlook points to a neutral/bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart is yet to reach 50, suggesting that XAU/USD has more correction room on the upside despite struggling to gather bullish momentum.

On the upside, $1,740 (20-day SMA, 50-day SMA) aligns as key resistance. With a daily close above that level, additional gains toward $1,760 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) and $1,790 (100-period SMA) could be witnessed.

$1,700 (psychological level, end-point of the downtrend) stays intact as significant support. In case gold falls below that level and starts using it as resistance, bears could target $1,680 (July 21 low) and $1,675 (static support from March 2021).

This content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute as investment advice. Trading any financial market involves risk.

Market Headlines Update – 13 Sep

  • Asia FX Tepid, Dollar Steadies Ahead of U.S. CPI Inflation
  • Oil prices fall as China demand concerns mount amid COVID curbs
  • Thai consumer confidence at 7-month high in August
  • Indonesia to review minimum wage rules after protests over fuel price hike
  • Bank of America CEO predicts income boost from higher rates
  • Asian Stocks Cautiously Optimistic Ahead of U.S. CPI Data
  • Dollar eases back from recent gains as focus on U.S. inflation data; euro jumps
  • EUR/JPY traces yields to retreat from multi-year high above 144.00, German/EU data eyed
  • USD/CAD steadies near 1.3000 amid sluggish oil prices, cautious mood ahead of US CPI
  • S&P 500 Futures stay mildly bid even as yields retreat from multi-day top, US inflation eyed
  • China’s Premier Li vows more policy support to shore up consumption
  • Steel price aims a rebound on soaring supply worries in China and Eurozone


Week ahead in FX (12, Sep – 16, Sep)

Major News and Economic Events:

U.S. inflation reports (Sept. 13, 12:30 pm GMT) – Dollar traders must be pretty eager to set their sights on Uncle Sam’s latest CPI readings since these could seal the deal for another 0.75% Fed rate hike.

Analysts are expecting to see a slowdown in headline inflation, though, as the August figure likely fell 0.1% after staying flat in July. This would mark its first negative reading since May 2020, which might suggest that U.S. inflation has peaked.

U.K. CPI (Sept. 14, 9:30 pm GMT) – The U.K. economy will also be releasing its inflation figures for August this week, and many are hoping that price pressures steadied at 10.1% year-over-year.

Another uptick in CPI would up the pressure on the BOE to accelerate their interest rate hikes in order to keep stagflation from worsening. The core CPI likely ticked higher from 6.2% to 6.3% for the month.

New Zealand Q2 GDP (Sept. 14, 10:45 pm GMT) – After reporting a 0.2% contraction for the first three months of this year, New Zealand’s economy is expected to rebound with a 1.0% GDP figure for Q2.

Retail sales reports – We’ll get a round of consumer spending data towards the end of the week, with the U.S., China and the U.K. printing their retail sales figures for August.


U.S. NFP Report Trading Guide

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the prior month, excluding workers in the farming industry. Given that full employment is one of the Federal Reserves mandates, it is very closely watched.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Last NFP Data Summary?

  • U.S. added 528K jobs in July vs. 250K estimate
  • Unemployment rate improved from 3.6% to 3.5%
  • Average hourly earnings ticked higher from 0.4% to 0.5%
  • June NFP reading upgraded from 372K to 398K

The economy added 528K jobs in July, which is higher than the estimated 250K increase and also higher than the previous month’s figure.

Jobless rate down from 3.6% to 3.5% instead of holding steady as many expected. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.1% during the month.

Wage growth was also observed, as the average hourly earnings figure accelerated to a 0.5% gain instead of slowing to 0.3%.

What’s expected this time?

  • August hiring to come in at 295K
  • Jobless rate to hold steady at 3.5%
  • Average hourly earnings to tick down to 0.4%

Number crunchers continue to predict a slowdown in U.S. hiring, with the August report expected to show a 295K increase in employment.

This might keep the jobless rate steady at 3.5% for the month, unless there are any major changes in labor force participation.

Wage growth might also slow down to just a 0.4% uptick, keeping inflation fears in check

Leading indicators are giving mixed signals so far. The ADP non-farm employment change figure came up short at 132K versus the 300K consensus for August while the JOLTS job openings report showed more positions available in the previous month.

Weaker than expected results could dampen hopes of another 0.75% interest rate hike from the Fed, especially since the latest round of inflation figures reflected easing price pressures.

Planning to trade on NFP but not sure which pairs to trades? Ask with our expert and get free analysis report.

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