News and Economic Events Update:

• China’s exports grew by 5.7% y/y to $322.8B in September; it’s the slowest rate of growth since April. Imports inched up by 0.3% y/y vs. 1.0% y/y forecast
• China GDP for Q3 was 3.9% y/y vs. 3.3% y/y forecast; the unemployment rate increased to 5.5% vs. 5.3% previous
• CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam said on Monday that  he sees ether as a commodity — not a security.
• Oil prices jumped on Wednesday on record high U.S. crude exports and strong refining demand; WTI crude broke back above $88/bbl while Brent crude jumped above $96/bbl
• The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected rate hike of 50 bps vs. a 75 bps forecast
• Russian President Putin said on Thursday that his nation has never discussed a nuclear strike, and that there was no necessity for Russia to attack Ukraine with nukes.
• As expected, the European Central Bank raised the deposit rate to 2.00% vs. 1.25% previous
• The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic projections for Asia to 4.0% for 2022 (vs. a 4.9% forecast back in April) on Friday.
• North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles on Friday from the North’s eastern coastal Tongchon area
• The U.S. Core PCE Price Index annualized read of 5.1% y/y came in slightly below expectations, taming inflation fears a bit during the Friday session.
• U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 49.9 vs. 52.0 in September; Services Index at 46.6 vs. 49.3; input cost pressures have increased; employment conditions mostly unchanged
• U.S. Home Prices growth in August: +13.1% y/y vs. 16.0% y/y in July according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• U.S. New home sales fell -10.9% y/y to 603K in September
• U.S. GDP rebounded slightly in Q3 2022 with the advance read at +2.6% q/q vs. 2.3% q/q forecast
• U.S. durable goods for September: +0.4% m/m vs. upwardly revised +0.2% m/m in August
• U.S. weekly jobless claims: 217K vs. 214K previous
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index came as expected at 0.5% in September, inline with the August read; the annualized read of 5.1% y/y was slightly below expectations
• U.S. Personal income in September: +0.4% m/m vs. an upwardly revised August read of +0.4% m/m
• U.S. UOM consumer sentiment for October: 59.9 vs. the preliminary read of 59.8, and above the September read of 58.6
• On Monday, Rishi Sunak was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party, making him the next prime minister of Britain.
• U.K. Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 45.8 vs. 48.4 previous; Services PMI at 47.5 vs. 50.0 previous; output and demand continue to weaken; political uncertainty added to inflationary pressures contributed to downbeat sentiment
• U.K. bond prices rallied on Monday as traders bet that new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will put an end to weeks of upheaval plaguing the nation’s markets and restore credibility to economic policy making
• U.K. CBI manufacturing output for October -4%, the same as September, but sees output to increase over the next three months; firms seeing a shortage of skilled labor is at its highest level since 1973 at 49%; New orders fell -8% q/q vs. +11% q/q in July
• The unveiling of a highly anticipated strategy for stabilizing the nation’s public finances was pushed back by Britain’s new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday to Nov. 17, two and a half weeks later than originally anticipated.
• Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 45.7 vs. 47.8 previous; Services PMI at 44.9 vs. 45.0 previous
• Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI for October: 46.6 vs. 48.4 in September; Services PMI at 48.2 vs. 48.8 previous; inflationary pressure remain due to high energy prices and rising wages
• Germany Ifo business climate index in October ticked lower to 84.3 vs. a revised 84.4 read in September
• Euro area M3 money supply growth for September: +6.3% y/y vs. 6.1% y/y in August; private loans increased by 5.5% y/y vs. 5.6% y/y in August
• German GfK consumer climate index improved from -42.8 to -41.9 in Oct
• Spanish jobless rate ticked higher from 12.5% to 12.7% in Q3 vs. 12.4% forecast
• The European Central Bank raised the deposit rate from 0.75% to 1.50% as expected; future policy path will be decided during the upcoming meetings
• Germany posted unexpected Q3 growth — up by 0.3% q/q vs. -0.2% q/q expected
• France CPI for October; 7.1% y/y vs. 6.4% y/y forecast
• Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 92.27 in September to 90.93 in October
• The Bank of Canada hike interest rates by 50 bps to 3.75% vs. an expectation of a 75 bps hike; the BOC sees growth slowing through the first half of 2023
• Canada GDP for August: +0.1% m/m vs. 0.0% m/m forecast
• RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said on Tuesday that despite the fact that inflation in New Zealand was higher than anticipated in the third quarter, the central bank remains “hopeful” that it has peaked.
• ANZ’s survey shows a 6 point drop in business confidence in October to -43; inflation pressures remain high with expectations at 6.13%
• RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr warned on Thursday that the central banks efforts to slow inflation will likely slow down employment conditions in the near-term
• New Zealand consumer confidence for October: unchanged at 85.4 vs. previous
• Australia manufacturing PMI slows from 53.5 to 52.8 in October; Services PMI contracts from 50.6 to 49.0 in October
• RBA Assitant Governor Christopher said on Monday that further rates are likely, but the timing and size wil depend on data
• Australia’s annual inflation races from 6.1% y/y to a 32-year high of 7.3% y/y in September; CPI jumped 1.8% m/m vs. 1.6% m/m forecast
• RBA’s trimmed mean CPI jumped from 4.9% y/y to 6.1% y/y, much higher than RBA’s 2% – 3% target
• Australian import prices up by 3.0% q/q in Q3 vs. a projected 0.8% q/q uptick
• Australia producer price index read for September quarter rose 1.9% q/q (1.4% q/q previous) and 6.4% y/y
• Japan flash manufacturing PMI for October: 50.7 from 50.8 in September; Services PMI was higher at 53.0 vs. 52.2 in September, likely due to increasing travel volumes
• Bank of Japan was suspected to have intervened again on Monday after the yen jumped against the dollar to 145.50 during the Asian session. Japan officials continued to refuse to make comments on any possible intervention actions.
• BOJ core CPI read was up from 1.9% y/y in August to 2.0% y/y in September